So let me explain what is ACTUALLY happening because these other people clearly don't Trust me it not I don't care We have inventory that we built at let's say FOR EXAMPLE 100psf and we anticipated selling for 35% gross margin when we started those homes 8 months ago up until just the past three months we started lowering the pricing so we are still willing to accept a lower gross margin though it hurts the people who just bought in the community (oh well) So those inventory homes we started 5-8 months ago are not selling now in certain areas. We have the margin spread to still make profit beyond expectation prior to Covid. And to hit our numbers (sales only) we will lower the prices all for that signature

So now what is happening is the prices are dropping inventory is increasing cancellations have tripled in past 3 months (hard facts) We still built these homes at 10X lumber costs The stupid response from regards that lumber is almost back to normal doesn't apply to Jack shit until 8-10 months from now Anyone who tells you different is clearly sniffing shit out of grandmas toilet

EVERY National home builder is projecting layoffs in various forms beginning this quarter some like toll have drastically cut staffing in various regions where I am located

Nothing would please me more than to come here and applaud our efforts nationally but I'm telling you facts behind the scenes that exist in private upper level conversations that 2023' is uncertain at best. Negative is anticipated and "get ready for bleak 2nd half" Most of us National builders have backlog sales up to the second quarter this year meaning. We have started homes with declared /projected profit margins based on closings through may/June Sales dropping immensely curbs these expectations after this timeframe This is a RACE to fill our backlog with margins that make sense and keep an "even flow" projection through the year Most if not ALL divisions and companies are projecting even or negative start/closings/sales for back half 23' Some of us will project even comparing 22-23' which is a RARE declaration in todays world. Do what you want with this. Down vote me or ask me anything I don't care

Yes I was on earnings call a month ago

I disagree with the bots here. There's ZERO upside with builder in 2023'

Hmmmmmmm mmmmm

LEN :((( whoops

I'm not proving your point what so ever. I don't lose sleep on people not believing what I live day to day. I'm just stating the facts from the northeast region. I really don't give a shit what your thoughts are if you believe me. Sales are down 30% month over month. Monthly cancelations are over 15-17% where normal was 5 Home prices are reducing by 5% cutting into margins As they continue to decrease to meet sales goals. Well. Do the math. A 20k lumber reduction on a house doesn't cover the margin loss with sales price and PSF cost

You understand that all lumber purchased is from 3-6 months ago not what the current "rate" is right? All the homes built right now are still part of the inflated costs. Only homes delivered in Q3/4 23' will see reflected lumber margin discounts which will be offset by drastically reduced home sales prices

The L etter might begin with something that you put an enevelope in but this not financial advise at all

Margins are not expanding for builders though I can confirm this statement

One of the mentioned companies will be starting those layoffs this quarter as well and probably not the one mentioned to you

I have more information then what I probably legally am allowed to say. I wish I knew what to do with it quite frankly

I work for one of those. I can confirm inventory backlog issues. Closing issues etc. bleak 23' coming don't want to say to much