I would be willing to believe most of that. I still stand by my point that those are ultimately socioeconomic outcomes to socioeconomic problem sets. In those examples, I think that AI is essentially acting as a catalyst for other reactions.

I do think making good predictions about future history is somewhat next to impossible, as there are so many variables that wildly change the outcome, "butterfly effect" and all of that. But there are still some things that can probably be predicted.

I also think a lot of people in this subreddit are much more well-versed in AI tech than history, economics, political science or sociology. I think a historical understanding of past major technological progress events is essential for making predictions. Understanding AI tech is also important for this but not as much. A lot of the time people in this subreddit just make things up without comparing to historical events or citing a real foundation for their argument.

The issue is that the productivity/wage gap has been increasing since the 1970's and the people in power (read: the people with the resources to develop AI) have the system working perfectly as designed, where they can pocket larger and larger percentages of surplus wealth generated by workers. Without a large-scale societal rethinking, we can't naively expect AI innovations to result in a wealth redistrubtion as this would completely buck the 50-year established trend of technological progress increasing wealth inequality.

This is not an AI problem but a socioeconomic problem. It's easy to imagine AI-oriented solutions to AI-oriented problems but it's harder to imagine an AI-oriented solution to a socioeconomic problem, since they operate in such different arenas. UBI is an interesting solution idea from the socioeconomic space, but in my understanding, at this point it remains mostly untested at larger scales (scales large enough to affect things like inflation, etc.).

I think it's understandable that there is a lot of pessimism around increased automation, when most individuals from gen X and forward have broadly not been able to enjoy the full fruits being beared from automation relative to those that own the systems being automated.