Kinda looks like people are like "it's down now, so it'll not changw in 12 months" most of the time. Like, most of graph is offset by 12 months...so people are just persistence forecasting on average when asked (or the average of the extreme predictions is persistence)

I'd go to Stackoverflow for help with stuff like this. Also, a screenshot alone is also impossible to diagnose. You'll need to upload the error log, code, and detailed explanation of the problem if you want anyone to give you any useful advice. I have no idea what your problem is because you've provided nothing that would help me narrow it down.

After thought, I think you mean "convolution"

Makes sense. Every family preps the same meal every year regardless of the cost because it's tradition.