The chance of any particular number for a roll of the die once (e.g. 1 in 6)
The chance of getting a series of specific results. For instance, the chance of not rolling a 6 if you rolled 30 times is quite low (something like .4% chance of happening).
However, the fact that a sequence of rolls is likely to occur is NOT predictive of any single roll. You know it's weird if you roll 30 times and never hit a 6, but if you roll a 31st time, your odds of any one number is still one in 6.
Don't confuse the probability of getting a sequence with the probability of any single roll. It's a little counter-intuitive for some people.
the_chewtoy t1_ja9j3ar wrote
Reply to ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
I think you're confusing two concepts:
The chance of any particular number for a roll of the die once (e.g. 1 in 6)
The chance of getting a series of specific results. For instance, the chance of not rolling a 6 if you rolled 30 times is quite low (something like .4% chance of happening).
However, the fact that a sequence of rolls is likely to occur is NOT predictive of any single roll. You know it's weird if you roll 30 times and never hit a 6, but if you roll a 31st time, your odds of any one number is still one in 6.
Don't confuse the probability of getting a sequence with the probability of any single roll. It's a little counter-intuitive for some people.