This might be doomer-y take, but I increasingly think full automation of many jobs might be further out than I previously thought. I think if most people on this sub are being honest with themselves, with the law of accelerating returns, we thought self driving cars would be a full functioning technological reality in almost all road scenarios by now (I mean level 4-5 autonomy). I expected the main battles at this point to be over liability in the event of a collision and entrenched labor positions resisting the implementation of the technology. That just isn't the case. It appears to be a stickier tech problem than it initially seemed.
Even a field where I would expect the fastest worker replacement, Radiology, hasn't has seen AI lead to significant lay offs. If you asked me in 2015 who would read a simple and straight-forward x-ray (I mean for a broken arm, not a brain MRI) in the year 2025, a human or an AI, I'd have said AI for sure. We have 3 years to go but that already seems highly unlikely to me at this point. 2030 or 2035? Maybe, but my 2015 optimism burned me.
Or to look at another singularity field; I don't think we've seen significant life extension beyond where we were in even the 90's. "Youth extension," maybe, but even that hasn't really seen a wild sea-change. I lost my dad last year, and his hospital experience and life span weren't so different from when I lost my grandparents.
I think your numbers *may* pan out, but I don't expect it until the 2050's at least. Right now AI image generation makes it look like the graphic design and concept art fields may face real pressure from AI very soon, but if it ends up being like self-driving tech, getting that last 10-15% of fidelity is way WAY harder than the first 85-90%.
Again, I think your numbers seem reasonable, but I think we're looking at 2050-ish at the soonest. I also have NO faith in the American people to ever support something like UBI, and in it's absence I have no idea what society would even look like. I expect that the American people would rather see the whole of Houston look like a Kolkata slum, before they let anyone ever get "a free ride."
shadysjunk t1_it9iezc wrote
Reply to Thoughts on Job Loss Due to Automation by Redvolition
This might be doomer-y take, but I increasingly think full automation of many jobs might be further out than I previously thought. I think if most people on this sub are being honest with themselves, with the law of accelerating returns, we thought self driving cars would be a full functioning technological reality in almost all road scenarios by now (I mean level 4-5 autonomy). I expected the main battles at this point to be over liability in the event of a collision and entrenched labor positions resisting the implementation of the technology. That just isn't the case. It appears to be a stickier tech problem than it initially seemed.
Even a field where I would expect the fastest worker replacement, Radiology, hasn't has seen AI lead to significant lay offs. If you asked me in 2015 who would read a simple and straight-forward x-ray (I mean for a broken arm, not a brain MRI) in the year 2025, a human or an AI, I'd have said AI for sure. We have 3 years to go but that already seems highly unlikely to me at this point. 2030 or 2035? Maybe, but my 2015 optimism burned me.
Or to look at another singularity field; I don't think we've seen significant life extension beyond where we were in even the 90's. "Youth extension," maybe, but even that hasn't really seen a wild sea-change. I lost my dad last year, and his hospital experience and life span weren't so different from when I lost my grandparents.
I think your numbers *may* pan out, but I don't expect it until the 2050's at least. Right now AI image generation makes it look like the graphic design and concept art fields may face real pressure from AI very soon, but if it ends up being like self-driving tech, getting that last 10-15% of fidelity is way WAY harder than the first 85-90%.
Again, I think your numbers seem reasonable, but I think we're looking at 2050-ish at the soonest. I also have NO faith in the American people to ever support something like UBI, and in it's absence I have no idea what society would even look like. I expect that the American people would rather see the whole of Houston look like a Kolkata slum, before they let anyone ever get "a free ride."