I’ve come to believe that there aren’t black swans, just blind spots where people weren’t paying attention. We can imagine and prepare for a lot of things, and even anticipate them if we are tracking changes. I think they are more like gray swans, you think they are black at first but realize its just that you weren’t paying close enough attention. Not that everyone should have seen 2008 financial crisis on the horizon, but there were plenty of people who should have (and many did but thought they could ‘get out’ in time). That is more of a problem of overconfidence in the ability to game or control a system before it falls into chaos.
I believe your comments about the images of the future is actually one answer to this question. In a sense, I think we aren’t paying attention to what images of the future are thriving. We get distracted by the noise of conflict, failures, and whatever goes viral but miss out on the more ‘boring’ shared images of the future. How are these images changing may provide a larger picture view since it would reflect more on the emerging values and social perspectives that are bubbling up. Any system that comes into stress will be viewed through the social perspective of the time, and that directly influences how those systems will be changed.
ritzlingen t1_j7dycnu wrote
Reply to What weak signals or drivers of change—that receive limited attention today—are most likely to create signifiant impacts over the next 10-20 years? Where are the black swans hiding? by NewDiscourse
I’ve come to believe that there aren’t black swans, just blind spots where people weren’t paying attention. We can imagine and prepare for a lot of things, and even anticipate them if we are tracking changes. I think they are more like gray swans, you think they are black at first but realize its just that you weren’t paying close enough attention. Not that everyone should have seen 2008 financial crisis on the horizon, but there were plenty of people who should have (and many did but thought they could ‘get out’ in time). That is more of a problem of overconfidence in the ability to game or control a system before it falls into chaos.
I believe your comments about the images of the future is actually one answer to this question. In a sense, I think we aren’t paying attention to what images of the future are thriving. We get distracted by the noise of conflict, failures, and whatever goes viral but miss out on the more ‘boring’ shared images of the future. How are these images changing may provide a larger picture view since it would reflect more on the emerging values and social perspectives that are bubbling up. Any system that comes into stress will be viewed through the social perspective of the time, and that directly influences how those systems will be changed.