popobono
popobono t1_j254dr4 wrote
Reply to Silvergate.....? by Current_Cantaloupe_9
Less than 50% short interest isn’t that much nor does it automatically imply a short squeeze. For example carvana has had over 50% for most of the past couple months, yet it’s fallen 82%. Further SivG isn’t selling off for no reason, it’s selling off because it’s entire business model is in jeopardy (politicians contemplating placing regulations that stop crypto banks from accepting crypto as collateral) and one of its largest sources of revenue was just wiped out (FTX) along with a weak demand for crypto in general. The worries are not unfounded. Yes SivG might survive, yes it may pump to burn shorts, this is a crazy market and anything can happen. But the risk/reward is great. Many don’t like the risk, justifiably. Also, a companies own book value does not automatically mean that’s what the company is truly valued at, nor that it’s being undervalued. Most investors have no idea what SilverGates accountants are using to justify that valuation. For example as far as we know it could be counting their crypto reserves as assets, if so their own valuation method would be falling to the downside along with the crypto market, yet their book won’t reflect it until it’s updated, which only happens once a year.
For example Asos is heavily undervalued as of right now when compared to their book. Yet it comities to trade lower. Why? Probably because Asos likely uses their clothing inventory as assets on their book value, that coupled with a downturn in consumer spendings means less clothes being sold, more discounts, inventory loss etc. The outlook of the companys future in the current economic environment isn’t good and the book value is likely inflated by a depreciating asset. Almost exactly like SivG right now.
That said, do what you want, anything can happen in this market.
popobono t1_j65nlz6 wrote
Reply to comment by BlueRidgeGamer in To Hindenburg & other interested parties: my advice? Invest in some good home security. by BlueRidgeGamer
Nope, i was definitely thinking it too. Most people won’t be able to fathom what you’re saying though, breaks the worldview kinda thing. However it’s gained enough notoriety now that it would probably be much harder for retaliation.