I've been using gpt4 for some time now (I have the dev invite and subscribe to gptChat +). I am a softwr engineer with 20+ years of experience. Some things GPT outputs are really good and feel magic. However, anything slightly more advanced (as in coding) it is bad, like really really bad, not even junior level programmer bad, but much worse.

I highly recommend the paper that came out from MSFT last week "Sparks of intelligence of GPT4" (or something like that) It does a great analysis.

This is my approach on using GPT: If the task at hand is of low cognitive effort for me but tedious, I get GPT to do it. If the task would be hard for me to do (as in you need to take out a pen and paper and doodle stuff), I won't even dare to ask GPt to do it, it will be nothing by disappointment and more importantly, wasted time. So I'll do that one myself.

Like many said before: Language is the low hanging fruit for AI. Language encodes information, highly structural and logical, and most importantly of all, we have petabytes of readily available training data. NLP really is the "hello world" app for AI.

Now try this: open an electrical j-box, and swap out the light switch for a dimmer. Now imagine a robot trying to do that, moving all the actuators with mm precision, haptic sensing, 3D visual processing, all to find the right wires in the spaghetti mess of a typical j-box, to strip and bend the wires, handling small screws, now folding it all back neatly in the box while it all trying to spring back at you. That problem, that most humans can handle with no problem, is not even close to be anywhere solvable by AI. Now imagine snaking a wire for a new outlet, or sweating some old copper pipe, yeah forget about it. We are at least 30 years (very optimistically) away from an android going into your house and doing __any__ work that a handyman can do.

Kurzweil & Drexler, around 2000

MSFT, let me hexplain:

Google's main business is advertisement, __you__ are the product, they do not give a rat's ass about your experience as long as your eyeballs see the ads they plastered all over the search results. Have you seen Google results lately? Your results do not even appear on the first screen! You must scroll to even see your results.

Microsoft is a customer-centric company they should care about user experience, hence their search/ai should be more pleasant to use.

I don't like MS even more than Google but Google search is absolute garbage now and I do not see Google changing its business model, AI or not.

The bar is set is pretty low, and Microsoft's bing powered by AI can easily become the next landing page of the world.

Anybody who's done some remodeling/construction/handy man stuff, would know these skillsets will be the last ones to succumb to AI. It's just so unpredictable especially dealing with older houses.

I'm an AI dev and also I've done a decent amount of weekend warrior stuff, from plumbing/electrical to drywall/tile to finishing attic and basement. And I always imagine how I would go about training a model for a job at hand. It's basically not possible right now or in immediate future.

It is one thing to generate text, or image, and a whole new level is to control a humanoid robot that can sweat old pipes all on his own or snake new wires for an outlet. If I had to guess, at least 100x number of model parameters than GPT3. And training data? How do you even go about it? We will need to develop new approaches, like continuous learning. And can you imagine the compute you need to do inference with a model the size of GPT3 x 100? All of this in a humanoid robot? Yeah, it is insane. Of course that compute can be in the cloud and the robot is just a drone. Then you need a cloud supporting millions of these humanoid drones. If I had to guess again, we are at least 15 years and more likely 20 away from that.

Don't get me wrong, It will be done, but it will take the longest.

fuck off, regarded artist