Oh wow that's so cool! Nice article.

https://imgur.com/a/5DW0eTr

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I'd already made the bracket viz here but then I saw this blog post about sankeys with circle segments: https://richardbrath.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/arcs-vs-beziers-sankey-vs-tubemap/

so I just used svgwrite to put down the circle segments in the right places. It's all svg rectangles and path elements.

https://imgur.com/a/5DW0eTr

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There's the old bracket version, and my playoff implications viz.

I think you would just call this a sankey

It's displayed as 100% only because the true probability is closer to 100% than it is to 99%, and I didn't want to quote a finer precision. If they were guaranteed of the spot I would have removed the number completely.

I've been yelled at before =D

Thanks! I already had a version of this that looked like a regular bracket but then I saw this blog post: https://richardbrath.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/arcs-vs-beziers-sankey-vs-tubemap/

Yes that's right.

Maybe, actually - does anybody publish head-to-head probabilities for games? Making a model for a sport I don't know anything about is obviously past me but the viz can be adapted, maybe.

Generated using svgwrite

Source data: the NHL's public statistics, laundered through my simulations for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs.

Thanks! Certainly the layout itself is mine but the style is just a sankey, really. I've done it for a few different tournaments now.

https://twitter.com/ATFulemin/status/1156907649679659009

I think that would be misleading maybe - the sizes for each stage already match how many teams are not eliminated when they're over, I wouldn't want to alter that

Did I set the threshold at 20% specifically to make sure that Canada got on the main part of the viz even though it's kinda squeezed? You can't prove that.

I made a version with all of the knockout matches labelled but it was too cluttered for my tastes. I wanted to keep the language down, in the international spirit of the thing.

Viz by me using svgwrite, model is by Luke Benz (https://github.com/lbenz730/world_cup_2022)