macgyversstuntdouble

macgyversstuntdouble t1_jaeezpn wrote

> When the cost of labor increases, the costs of the other inputs don’t necessarily change. So the overall cost of producing a good or service doesn’t increase as much as the cost of labor alone.

So everyone can get an 8% raise this year, and the people who own those companies will also get their 8% increase in profits too (aka their wages). And that won't increase inflation! Brilliant! /s

You see - this is what broad increases in wages do. They increase the cost of doing business. The Fed is trying to curb that by cooling the economy, but we've got a shit-ton of economic momentum going forward and it's hard to stop a train that Congress shoves a trillion dollars in new spending every year.

If you think that wages are not correlated to prices, you are dumb. I think you understand that there is a wage price correlation (as all your papers state), but you instead contend that there is instead something bigger driving inflation. That may be true - but wages are sticky.

Your boss doesn't tell you "Prices have come down on goods, so you get a 6% decrease in wages". However, we expect "prices are up 8%, here's your 8% increase in wages". One of these is sticky, and it's why many are pushing for wages to lag more. It sucks, but it's real.

In no way is the wage price spiral "debunked" by your articles. It exists. They agree the correlation exists. The only question is: is the wage increase broad or narrow. It is clearly broad right now, and that makes inflation itself stickier, which is inevitably bad.

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macgyversstuntdouble t1_jadimyo wrote

"Debunked" - yet your first link literally describes it as a valid condition.

> And if, say, 10% is the headline number for the increase in pay, then 10% is an excellent focal point for price increases, even though overall costs haven’t risen that much. So prices may rise just as much as pay, sending the wage-price spiral into overdrive.

Your second article talks more about how it isn't ethical for workers to sacrifice themselves to stop inflation (inherently agreeing that the wage price spiral is real), and the third article is more of that. These aren't debunking the wage price spiral. They are just saying it isn't the most important thing out there.

The wage-price spiral is real. It isn't the only thing driving inflation, but it is driving inflation. We've literally seen this. It isn't a debate. Wages go up, prices go up (because the employer isn't eating those costs: it's passing them on to the consumer). Then wages go up to match the prices that went up. Hello 1970s and 1980s. Eventually it stopped so it isn't an infinite spiral (no duh!) - but the impact is tangible and real, and history shows it clearly.

Putting absolute knowledge into a bunch of economists is foolhardy. How many economists were agreeing with Jay Powell that inflation was "transitory" in 2021? No large scale mass of PhDs contested it. They largely agreed with him! Yet they were all wrong.

It sucks, but something has to break in the next few years. Asset prices, interest rates, employment, wages, government deficit spending, dollar strength, international markets - something has to give. Inflation won't until there is actual pain to stop it.

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macgyversstuntdouble t1_iw8goa2 wrote

I'm literally just sorting the Wikipedia list that you sourced. When Baltimore is "#51", it's because it is sorted by state name. Check out the Top Ten if you don't believe me.

That article has nothing to do with Baltimore and its crime rate. Congrats on bringing in unrelated information that I'm going to completely ignore, and instead I'm going up focus on your inability to read basic data tables.

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macgyversstuntdouble t1_ir9v5cg wrote

You're probably thinking of this: https://www.baltimorebrew.com/2020/02/28/exclusive-baltimore-is-not-collecting-millions-of-dollars-from-commercial-water-users/

The billing rates for the the consultants running the water billing system are too high. $22M in 2020? Ouch.

It wouldn't surprise me that commercial users had larger outstanding balances. However, with the city needing money to fix its infrastructure, it is irresponsible of DPW and the city to fail to push for better returns on its billing strategies. Instead it will likely raise its water billing rate on those who do pay and ignore those who can pay but don't because that's easier than fixing actual obvious problems.

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macgyversstuntdouble t1_ir9ta62 wrote

The takeaway I got was two-fold:

  1. DPW doesn't send outstanding bills to collections.
  2. DPW doesn't do anything special to alert the user that they are in arrears.

One of these is easy to fix (2) and likely would improve cash flow into the city.

The other (1) is arguably important, but DPW should address (2) before ruining people's credit, as there is no current mechanism to provide notice about an account's failure to make payment.

However, I expect (1) to be implemented without (2) because I've experienced the city's bureaucracy enough to know better.

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