NH Journal is a republican propaganda shitrag that managed to squat on “ NH Journal” before anyone else got to it. It is literally a Granite Grok clone, best I can tell, exact same contributors, and the site even looks similar.

The credibility of the polls is pretty dubious Kuster is losing after a 10 point lead in previous polls, while somehow the more republican NH-1 still hasn’t shifted at all from a slight Pappas lead. This doesn’t suggest a republican surge, this is suggesting literal random numbers being thrown out there.

Edit: seriously, they have Burns in the lead with 87% of conservatives and 30% of the moderates, while Kuster has 60% of the moderates and 85% of the liberals, along with a bigger chunk of the conservatives at 10% than Burns has of the Liberals. NH-2 is a safe district for democrats. A conservative majority does not exist here if conservatives have been unable to win a seat here for over a decade. If Kuster is dominating the moderates then she is going to win, and nothing here suggests a conservative surge, My guess is conservative responses were seriously over counted, maybe even a typo in the weighing or something in NH-2 as otherwise this makes zero sense. It isn’t like Kuster has done anything huge in the news that would make people abandon her en masse and leave Pappas, whose seat is far more vulnerable, alone.

538 is not a poll. It is an amalgamation of dozens of polls. You chose individual polls that validate your views, I chose a site that averages polls.

For that matter, 538 also rates pollsters. That 48-47 poll is notable in that it comes from a pollster that is very consistently R +1-+3. While not absolute garbage, with a B grade, it is fairly obvious that they are not properly accounting for demographics when making the polls, and are likely not fully accounting for how people answering landlines and doing polls usually lean older. The Emerson college poll is likely fairly accurate given its excellent rating and high accuracy, but the Fabrizio poll is far less likely, given that they have a C grade and very few election polls to their name. They would also have a vested interest in drumming up support for Bolduc.

Winter rewind in with a brand new account to argue that candidates not spending money somehow leads to increased margins. Quick check of 538 suggests the exact opposite of your cherry-picked pills, with the average between Hassan and Bolduc increasing over the last month from Hassan +3.7 to Hassan + 5.5