I see - maybe I'm not up on the latest marketing BS for GPUs haha. At any rate, I'm curious what you think will be the driving force behind skyrocketing prices? Am I missing a hidden variable on manufacturing costs increasing? Or where do you picture that coming from?

We have no reason to think GPUs will get substantially more expensive than they currently are. They’re artificially inflated the last couple of years because of the crypto frenzy - let’s hope proof of work dies soon.

As for 2-3nm silicone, that’s extremely unlikely to ever happen. We can actually already get lithography down to those scales (not on a mass manufacturing scale obviously) but the problem we run into at those scales is actually quantum tunneling. Which is to say electrons start to spontaneously jump the gap and effectively short circuit. This leads to unreliability of the compute processor. Think flipping ones to zeros and zeros to ones when they shouldn’t be flipping. That makes for big problems at the metal level needless to say.

AMD has demonstrated one alternative however to keep us true to Moore’s law - expanding the breadth of parallel processing with more threads. There will be other such innovations in architecture as well, and surely more on the manufacturing side too.

Consumers will always pay a premium to be on the cutting edge of high performance, but if Moore’s law has held true this long, I’m not worried about costs decoupling from the patterns they’ve so far obeyed anytime soon. It’s certainly a “Lindy” type of situation.

If GPUs reach $3-5k, it’ll be because of inflation. Not for any fundamental reason to the technology itself.

I’m thinking it’s just an L1 orbit