I disagree, but we can just leave it there since I doubt we'll convince each other

>AGI will not happen in your lifetime

There are still people alive from before the first real computers were made (Not the theory), and from when the flight was still a new technology. Who are you to make this bold of a claim with such certainty?

I always try to stay conservative with investments but I did invest some in microsoft and Nvidia. I would say only invest the amount you wouldn't miss if something goes wrong.

I choose to be an optimist with most things. This is not because I am naive and assume extinction won't happen. It's because I want to enjoy the moment without stressing about something I have no control over. If society collapses or if we all die from climate change, or mass genocide, at least I'll have lived a good life with the time that I had.

Mostly shrugs and "I can still tell it's an AI writing that" or "It won't ever be as good as a human". Straight up denial from almost everyone. A few thought it was cool though and started playing around with it.

China, Russia, and probably others: "Suuuure we'll stop if you will" *continue to develop better AI models in secret

It's inevitable. There's no stopping it now, and to try is to allow others to figure it out first.

I'm also in the field and have noticed the same thing. The fact that all of my friends and family don't see the implications makes me feel like I'm going crazy or something. It may not be as fast as I think it will be, but I really don't see how it doesn't replace us very soon. I'm sure it will also be able to do the non-coding aspects just as easily as it does the coding.