Is it deemed more exciting if the winner’s win probability is low throughout the game?
If a team is heavily favored, even if the score is tied, their win probability is higher, meaning a back and forth game where the favorite has a narrow lead can skew this graph.
I think the Rams were favored in that dreadful SB LIII, and the biggest lead of the game was 10, meaning win probability stayed pretty level.
Cool data points. Like all data, it can be misleading
clamraccoon t1_j84kin8 wrote
Reply to comment by tree-of-thought in Recent Superbowl Win Probabilities, Ordered by "Excitement" [OC] by tree-of-thought
Is it deemed more exciting if the winner’s win probability is low throughout the game?
If a team is heavily favored, even if the score is tied, their win probability is higher, meaning a back and forth game where the favorite has a narrow lead can skew this graph.
I think the Rams were favored in that dreadful SB LIII, and the biggest lead of the game was 10, meaning win probability stayed pretty level.
Cool data points. Like all data, it can be misleading