barefootozark

barefootozark t1_jds570y wrote

> I’m really not bothers by that kind of logic, I’ve been hearing that scare tactic my whole life.

So when the original 25/50K 9% proposal came out you weren't bothered "by that kind of logic, because you've been hearing that scare tactic your whole life," right? But now that its true...

You're a living "This is fine" meme.

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barefootozark t1_jdproyk wrote

Sure, you can count all resident to make it look like the tax affects fewer people, but children don't pay taxes. Fewer than 1/2 of the citizens are taxpayers. Assuming that 7,000,000 state residents are taxpayers is absurd. It's probably closer to 3,000,000 taxpaying citizens.

So, it really closer to 0.2% of taxpayers will pay the cap gains tax with it at $250K, and it would have been closer to 2% of taxpayers if it was at 25/50K. If it gets lowered to 15K, 4% of taxpayers.

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barefootozark t1_jdpphlg wrote

If WA capital gains tax stands, lawmakers will be after more than the wealthy next

> In fact, a bill has already been proposed this year (SB 5335) that would not only increase the capital gains income tax rate but repeal the value exemption, applying the tax to all Washingtonians with capital gains income.

.

> that disproportionately affects lower income earners as a percentage of their income is way overdue.

This doesn't change the taxes that the lower income earners are paying. They will still be paying the same taxes. If you were really concerned about the taxes that they are paying you would be working to reduce their taxes. You're not.

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barefootozark t1_jdpng0b wrote

> ’m super flattered that one of the ≈1000 people in the state that have exposure to this tax

An estimated 7,000 households — the wealthiest in the state — are estimated to be affected by the capital gains tax law, according to Invest in WA Now.

It's estimated to raise 500M/year. If your 1000 people is true (it's not) each would pay on average $500,000 of capital gain tax. $500,000 is 7% of $7,142,857. THAT's FANTASTIC!! Suggesting that there are 1000 people in WA that average $7.4M in capital gains every year is not even ball park close.

There are ~ 7000 household affected. Household include more than 1 person.

The original $25K/$50K theshold capital gains tax affected 58,000 households. We'll be there within 2 years.

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barefootozark t1_j2vjzvp wrote

But that is exactly what they did.

> “While the power was out, after the Graham and South Hill attacks, the two went to a local business, Crahan drilled out a lock, and Greenwood entered to steal from the cash register,” agents wrote in charging documents filed Tuesday in the Western Washington U.S. District Court.

But these low level criminals were also known by the FBI for some time.

These geniuses also carried their cell phone during the crimes to make it easier for the FBI to ID them. Where did idiots like this get the idea that cutting power to substations would be a good idea?

E-isac had warning for December 23rd, so the feds were expecting it. Who showed these two how to known out substations.

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barefootozark t1_iwc7aa1 wrote

In WA-8 district, the other competitive district, the D:R ratio from the primary to general doesn't change much. This indicates that people that vote R in the primary continue and vote R in the general. In this case Larkin's primary votes with many R's running increased from 34,684 to 139,766 in the general where he is the only R running.

In the WA-8 Primary there were 101,201 D votes and 100,293 R votes. Each increases ~50% (60% D/ 40% R) in the general: D 159,131, R 139,766.

The WA-3 and WA-8 had similar total turnouts in the Primary and General... from 200K to 300K:

  • WA-3 Primary 220K
  • WA-8 Primary 204K
  • WA-3 General 304K
  • WA-8 General 299K

Truly unreal results.

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barefootozark t1_iwc2paa wrote

This is difficult to understand considering how improbable it was.

In the primary held in August this district had 73,060 Dem votes and 142,550 Republican votes. Of those Perez got almost all the Dem vots at 68,190. Kent got 50,197, out going Butler got 49,001, and a third candidate got 35,219. Key thing to note is that the R total turnout was 142K vs 73K D turnout... at 2:1 ratio. Dems ran one candidate and turnoout was overwhelmingly supported R's but was largely split 3 ways.

Then the general election happens 3 months later and it's a complete flip. Perez gets 153,169, doubling hers and dems turnout in the primary. Kent gets barely gets more than the total R turnout in the primary increasing from 142K to 149K.

So what happened. Did R voters in the primary vote D in the general, or did D's not vote in the primary and showup 2X in the general? When has this EVER happened to this large of extent?

It was only 3 months? Fivethirtyeight had it 98% chance win for Kent. I didn't hear of any campaigning for Perez (yes, I'm in the district), but the car shop owner wins. Stunningly improbable turn of events.

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