The only risk here is if conversion takes longer than 4/28 to occur. The court can delay it or even if they allow it, it may take the company a few days to have it go through.

As the share price of AMC is affected by the liquidity constraint on the sell side, until conversion (when that constraint will go away), there is no good reason to assume the share price will decline that much.

FYI... I think the share price will fall to well under $1 ($10 post-split).

I would say, being down only 50% for the year makes you a successful options trader...

Tesla in 2017 sold 2,685 Model 3's and their FCF that year was -4.1B. In 2018 they sold 152,977 Model 3's and their FCF that year was -221M.

RIVN in 2021 sold 920 r1t's and their FCF was -4.4B... So ah-ha! You must think you are right because look at how close that FCF is... But... through Q3' 2022 with 12,278 vehicles sold their FCF was another -4.7B.

​

So to recap from Year 1 of production to Year 2 of production for the Model 3 vs the Truck/SUV Rivian makes:

Tesla 2,685 -> 152,977

Rivian 920 -> 12,278

​

FCF for those periods:

Tesla -4.1B -> -221M

Rivian -4.4B -> -4.7B

​

If you want to dig deeper into this...

In Q1' 2022 per vehicle sold, Rivian's FCF was -654K

In Q2' 2022 per vehicle sold, their FCF was -206K

In Q3' 2022 per vehicle sold, their FCF was -449K

Not sure scaling is working out here as you think.

​

You can chirp on about how Rivian is doing this and that, but the numbers here don't show it. Tesla within a year turned around a cash-burning production process... Rivian has barely scaled up and as of Q3 was still burning cash like crazy. I would not count on next week Tuesday after the close looking pretty.

Exactly. Not sure why people don't get that that Tesla was operating in a different environment in 2010-2020. The Tesla model worked, arguably, to a large extent because of the lack of competition and the access to those motivated buyers who were less price conscious and more forgiving of early missteps. And even in that environment Tesla almost went bankrupt (well we also forget that battery costs were crazy high and lack of any supply chain meant substantial upfront costs).

Then Tesla also has Elon Musk, but if I mention that I will get called out for being part of the cult...

Tesla took till 2018 when they had already over 500K vehicles sold to finally hit -10B in cumulative free cash flow (much of it related to production and scaling of Model 3 production before things turned around in 2019)... Rivian by Q3' 2022 was already -11.4B in cumulative free cash flow with under 20K sold. By comparison... when Tesla had sold that few vehicles their cumulative free cash flow was about -1B.

So comparing to Tesla here is kind of ridiculous but guess it looks like Rivian is headed to -100B in cumulative free cash flow before they turn it around.

As great as the Rivian design is, unless they can figure out how to produce them without losing money who cares. Maybe that is why Tesla did not design like them.

I hate dumb lists... It reminds me of some people with political discussions who have lists of irrelevant things to post in response to any reasonable discussion, even if the list makes no sense.

Now, to be clear I think AMZN is a great company and have invested in them before and made good money if that investment, but I did sell a little while back because I was having trouble with the value case for them (not that my other investments did much better, but felt it was time to pull out of AMZN...).

So let's take a look at your list for the heck of it.

1. CES 2023 on Jan 5th. - Who cares. This is an annual event that has zero impact on the long-term fundamentals of AMZN.
2. Earnings Feb 1st. - And so? Every company that has declined in value had earnings at some time or another as well as every company that has gone up. It is just a day that info may come out that will move the price, not a guarantee which way.
3. Last years Feb earnings was the biggest move in stock market history (+14%). - As they say in investing... prior results do not guarantee future performance.
4. CPI Jan 12th. - So invest one way or another in SPY as that reflects the impact of CPI better than an individual stock.
5. UMICH Jan 13th. - No clue what this means
6. New 52W low. - Whoopee doo... Every stock before it reaches it current 52 week low, reached a prior one... which means nothing. Stocks can go up or down regardless of lows or highs.
7. They pump the stock Feb/March because the number stock refreshers to employees is based on average Feb share price. - Ok... not even going to bother with this.
8. Consensus EPS is a softball. - I think the consensus for Q4 is $0.20, which comes to under $1 annualized, which means AMZN is trading at a 85X+ PE ratio.
9. Cost-cutting happening right now (layoffs 10%, Alexa deprioritized). - cost cutting is necessary but perhaps sales will be down and profits impacted in any case... meaning the cost-cutting is keeping things afloat as opposed to making them profitable.

My take... maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down... definitely this DD you have done is crap though.

Maybe try real DD next time... Like if you exclude AWS from the picture, AMZN lost $10 billion in the last 12 months. Or how if you exclude AWS, AMZN barely makes money. As to AWS, during the last few years growth was very strong, but has recently slowed down. In any case would take several years of strong growth to justify even current share prices. Basically an investment in AMZN is a bet that they can turn their retail business not a massive money-maker and that AWS will continue to show strong growth for the next 5 years. My guess is Q4 will not answer these questions and will leave a lot of doubt as to the future potential of AMZN and if it can grow fast enough to justify the share price.

Not a bad idea... My biggest concern is they have $300M cash and their cash burn has so far been pretty low. If they run a lean operation the book value may remain too high to necessarily see the stock price plummet much.

I think more like 180B but whatever... Biggest issue is if he has to liquidate a lot more Tesla shares to pay back the Twitter deal in a market that gets worse than it is now. He better get moving fixing twitter and perhaps he should stop tweeting so much toxic stuff if his goal is to boost the platform.