Substation engineer, here: you're effectively gonna need a substation for every gas station. Charging accomodations everywhere (what if you don't have a garage or driveway?).
The grid is overstressed in it's current state, and has been for a while. So you're going to need to catch it up to where it should be before you build all of those new subs. Adding millions of EVs to that load in a safe, reliable, and sustainable way is not going to happen in 7 years.
Even if we had enough substation, transmission, distribution, and generation engineers to do all of that design work, it's not feasible to think that the legislative steps needed will occur quickly.
Equipment manufacturers would have to drastically increase their production to keep up, which would take time to hire enough people, train them up, work out the kinks, etc. Even at current demand, we are seeing the same supply chain issues that everyone else has (many large transformers can have a 2 year lead-time for delivery), labor shortages, etc...
Also, consider the recent substation attacks that have been in the news. If my clients decide they want additional security (or NERC starts requiring more), my design just got more complicated and the purchasing and construction process is suddenly more of a burden, which drives up cost and slows down the whole process.
Sorry, friendo, I love the optimism, but no way. This industry moves as slowly as any utility, and the changes required are just too massive.
Edit: as for the contribution of solar to the grid, there's a lot more to it. When the sun is out, it's pretty good, but even then you can only get so many watts per square meter. That energy flux is gonna vary greatly by season and location, no former gas station is going to depend on that as a primary source unless they have a big field next door for all the panels they'd need. They are going to be on the grid. And that's where questions about grid inertia come in. I'd recommend you read up on that, it's pretty interesting. Sorry for the long response. I am as pro-renewable as they come, but there is way too much nuance and hoop-jumping for this to be a fast or smooth process
UberSven t1_j44088k wrote
Reply to Vehicles in 2030. My predictions; leave yours in comments. by sarinGasSmells
Substation engineer, here: you're effectively gonna need a substation for every gas station. Charging accomodations everywhere (what if you don't have a garage or driveway?).
The grid is overstressed in it's current state, and has been for a while. So you're going to need to catch it up to where it should be before you build all of those new subs. Adding millions of EVs to that load in a safe, reliable, and sustainable way is not going to happen in 7 years.
Even if we had enough substation, transmission, distribution, and generation engineers to do all of that design work, it's not feasible to think that the legislative steps needed will occur quickly.
Equipment manufacturers would have to drastically increase their production to keep up, which would take time to hire enough people, train them up, work out the kinks, etc. Even at current demand, we are seeing the same supply chain issues that everyone else has (many large transformers can have a 2 year lead-time for delivery), labor shortages, etc...
Also, consider the recent substation attacks that have been in the news. If my clients decide they want additional security (or NERC starts requiring more), my design just got more complicated and the purchasing and construction process is suddenly more of a burden, which drives up cost and slows down the whole process.
Sorry, friendo, I love the optimism, but no way. This industry moves as slowly as any utility, and the changes required are just too massive.
Edit: as for the contribution of solar to the grid, there's a lot more to it. When the sun is out, it's pretty good, but even then you can only get so many watts per square meter. That energy flux is gonna vary greatly by season and location, no former gas station is going to depend on that as a primary source unless they have a big field next door for all the panels they'd need. They are going to be on the grid. And that's where questions about grid inertia come in. I'd recommend you read up on that, it's pretty interesting. Sorry for the long response. I am as pro-renewable as they come, but there is way too much nuance and hoop-jumping for this to be a fast or smooth process