I remain very humbled 🫡

For those curious about the NWS forecasts: it is eye-opening how different the latest NWS Gray NDFD snowfall forecast grids look compared to their afternoon package. Compare their forecast to mine, you'll notice it looks similar but 12 hours behind mine.

My company does run a bias-corrected superensemble forecast system that generates forecasts at 2.5 km resolution, or ~1.55 mi. How does Carrot ingest data and what data are you looking for?

I thought about this exact issue as I was selecting colors from a trusty color palette I refer to often. I think one of my Python libraries has a colorblind friendly palette, I'll leverage that next time

The latest data I'm looking at now is even better for a snow day in Lakes Region, it appears the heavy snow band will set up right overhead.

If anything leave a few hours later if you can! I'm expecting sleet, freezing rain, and rain to dominate that stretch of roadway, so it'll be smart to give MassDOT extra time to treat roadways.

The company I work for covers a number of clients in NH, ME, and VT, so gridded content like this is actually our expected forecast across multiple states.

I'm glad the post is useful! This is the serious drawback of weather apps, it's info (usually a garbage, single model forecast) compressed into a few numbers and icons. My company is working out ways to bridge this gap, seeing how folks on Reddit respond to posts like this is helping.

The perks of a pseudo-stationary snow band with higher snow ratios! I'm not sure which outlet is giving you a forecast of 8" for Thursday, but unless you live in the Whites it's best to totally ignore that trash forecast (very likely the European operational) and stick with my outlook here. As expected, the majority of guidance now favors warm air even further north and brings rain into most of southern NH, we'll be lucky to squeeze out 3-4" south.

I think you're the fifth person to guess that haha, what makes you say that?

Ahhh the Kuchera ratio lol. That's a good question! My answer is no one model individually, though I do have a preferred model forecast for snow called positive snow depth change, or PSDC.

PSDC accounts for surface temperature, snow growth, precipitation types, compaction, etc. to provide a more realistic representation of how much snow a person will measure. When you compare the 12Z HRRR Kuchera & PSDC data, it should become immediately apparent that there's a notable difference in the Lakes Region where above-freezing air may surge all the way north to. The snow ratios in the White Mountains north of this heavy snow band will be pretty impressive, I can easily see 12-16" above 1,500 feet

Yeah the pattern in March is starting to look really interesting for the Northeast U.S., including all of New England. Models are hinting at a retrograding ridge into Greenland and a second persistent ridge in the Eastern Pacific through Alaska. That combination should squeeze much colder air in Canada south and provide the necessary blocking for our more classic, slow-moving Northeast U.S. snow storms.

There will be two shots at it! The first is light & right at the morning commute in/south of Durham. The second is more interesting and moves through just after sunset ahead of a vorticity plume, I like up to 0.5" out of that round

This is the kind of reasonable intelligence that continues to make the Granite State the smartest in the entire country!

I mean, I wouldn't place that high up on my list of things to do either. She's better off going late Saturday into Sunday when Sunday's highs climb 20 degrees higher

If she and her group are adequately prepared, then I think that section of the hike isn't impossible. My main worry is actually blowing snow reducing visibility & obscuring trail markers. The girl Sotelo who perished on the Franconia Ridge succumbed to that exact issue.

"All callsigns on this net: this the Mt. Washington evac site. We're holding our own but have glassed enemies to the west on the cog railway, and are taking fire from that direction"

I hope the snow forecast coming out shortly is a hit too 😬

🫡

Anytime!!

I'm glad! The company I work for forecasts for a variety of companies, DPWs, etc. in ME, so I'm closely following this in your neck of the woods as well!

Aren't eggs in shorter supply too right now? Might as well purchase that entire section of the store while you're at it

I am humbled 🫡

Well given residual snow, gusty NW winds above the tree line, wind chills falling below -20°F in the afternoon, & trails potentially hard to navigate after fresh snow, my initial thought is she should wait. A few questions:

1. What trail will she be on and what's the hut she's trying to reach?

2. What time is she starting the hike on Friday?