TheCloudBoy

TheCloudBoy t1_jaxpmlt wrote

Reply to comment by SoundsRightToMe in This is an old school NH snowstorm. Good to see! by ReauxChambeaux

Tag me next time so I can at least defend my forecast; part of the reason why people like me is I'll tell you why it didn't pan out as expected. The southern end of the 12-16" band in Dover & Rochester is the only notable bust in the forecast grids for the entire state; that's a win any day, especially given the level of detail provided in my last forecast here!

The reason behind the shortfall is thermal profiles (which I discussed at length in previous posts) were abysmal both at the start and remained that way over your neck of the woods for the majority of the event. Your storm average dry & wet-bulb temperatures hovered between 32-33 degrees, a clear signal that snow ratios were not great. Also consider that totals eclipsed 14" a mere ~15 miles to your north, it was that fine of a line. As for WMUR's forecast, they had you in the 8-14" blob so they a) weren't more accurate and b) technically busted by fewer inches than I did.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jaslw5p wrote

Reply to comment by BlueRabbitx in One Final Look at The Incoming Snow & Wind by TheCloudBoy

A good question! The rationale for both is as follows:

  1. Littleton: strong ESE winds Saturday morning will downslope over the Kinsman-Cannon & Franconia Range spines. Downsloping winds dry & warm the air locally downrange of this action, or locations immediately to the NW of Sugar Hill.
  2. Nashua: The depression there is for the potential for sub-par thermal profiles dramatically lowering snow ratios, with multiple windows where wet snow changes to sleet.
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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jasjt5y wrote

Reply to comment by CheliceraeJones in One Final Look at The Incoming Snow & Wind by TheCloudBoy

This is Reddit. My critique above is within the normal bounds of what a) I usually give and b) what others in my field typically do. The forecasts circulating are lazily drawn and need to look better, period. End of story. I'm here to provide useful weather info, not get into arguments on the degree of professionalism I should adhere to on Reddit, sorry.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jasihw6 wrote

Reply to comment by CheliceraeJones in One Final Look at The Incoming Snow & Wind by TheCloudBoy

  1. It's completely fair to explain right off the top that there's a host of junk being shot around, especially given I don't want to have to answer 5 questions that ask "why does yours have 6"+ more/less than "x" station's map".
  2. I'd want someone to openly destroy my map if it looked like flaming garbage, had noticeable inaccuracies, and I was being paid lots of money to provide better forecasts. It's irrefutable that what's circulating today is lazily drawn, the public deserves better and that's in part why I do this. Just one example: I've seen three different forecasts show 8"+ for the central Monadnock Region. That's lazy.
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TheCloudBoy t1_jaazcoh wrote

Reply to comment by Boats_are_fun in Local weather stations downplaying tonight's storm? by [deleted]

Why hello haha, I hope I can be of some assistance here! So a few thoughts:

  1. Your suspicion on a convergence to higher QPF (liquid precip equivalent) has certainly occurred over the past 36 hours for portions of NH. This has been focused in three areas: SE exposures of the Whites, eastern NH near the inverted trough axis, & ESE exposures along the Mondanock Region
  2. Big reason for the uptick in precip is from convective bursts set to form along the inverted trough axis forming in the Gulf of Maine and extending into ME. My thesis focused on similar events and found mesoscale models are far better resolving this (obviously) than the GFS or ECMWF.
  3. I'm not surprised a number of TV stations are lazily ripping whatever the ECMWF forecasts without really trying, this is a major gripe I've had lately.
  4. Snow ratios are going to vary with the event by location, so using the 10:1 static ratio will get you into trouble here away from the Seacoast & lower Merrimack Valley. Lift through the dendritic growth zone isn't wildly impressive but I can absolutely see snow ratios average to 12-15:1 across interior NH, especially northern Strafford, all of Carroll, and the Whites.
  5. We've been all over this at the company I work for, here's the gridded forecast we were giving clients this afternoon. This is a dynamic ratio forecast using a superensemble approach with an emphasis on the mesoscale model data. I'm convinced locations in/north of Effingham get pasted and someone comes close to 12" there. We starkly contradicted the NWS in a number of areas and feel confident we will be successful in doing so: https://imgur.com/gallery/cP6GD3r
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TheCloudBoy OP t1_ja8gry0 wrote

Reply to comment by tombradyisgod_12 in We Finally Get Snowstorms.... In March by TheCloudBoy

So the forecast has gone through a reduction up in the Lakes Region since I released this yesterday, the only drawback to Reddit is I don't want to bombard people with updates every 24 hours haha. 4-8" is the call for everyone in the Lakes Region except for Wakefield, Middleton, Ossipee, & Effingham (8-12" remains in play there).

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TheCloudBoy t1_j9tnogb wrote

Reply to comment by perkinslumbago in We're expecting 30 inches of snow over the next 10 days; preparations by movdqa

Soooo we definitely should be paying attention to the storm Tuesday & Tuesday night here, which looks to include a feature notorious for concentrating repeated blasts of snow to it's north, or over us. I of course am excited because this feature is partially related to what my senior thesis focused on. It's not going to drop 30" of snow, but my opening bid is already 10-16" for a good chunk of the state

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