If anything leave a few hours later if you can! I'm expecting sleet, freezing rain, and rain to dominate that stretch of roadway, so it'll be smart to give MassDOT extra time to treat roadways.

The company I work for covers a number of clients in NH, ME, and VT, so gridded content like this is actually our expected forecast across multiple states.

I'm glad the post is useful! This is the serious drawback of weather apps, it's info (usually a garbage, single model forecast) compressed into a few numbers and icons. My company is working out ways to bridge this gap, seeing how folks on Reddit respond to posts like this is helping.

The perks of a pseudo-stationary snow band with higher snow ratios! I'm not sure which outlet is giving you a forecast of 8" for Thursday, but unless you live in the Whites it's best to totally ignore that trash forecast (very likely the European operational) and stick with my outlook here. As expected, the majority of guidance now favors warm air even further north and brings rain into most of southern NH, we'll be lucky to squeeze out 3-4" south.

I think you're the fifth person to guess that haha, what makes you say that?

Ahhh the Kuchera ratio lol. That's a good question! My answer is no one model individually, though I do have a preferred model forecast for snow called positive snow depth change, or PSDC.

PSDC accounts for surface temperature, snow growth, precipitation types, compaction, etc. to provide a more realistic representation of how much snow a person will measure. When you compare the 12Z HRRR Kuchera & PSDC data, it should become immediately apparent that there's a notable difference in the Lakes Region where above-freezing air may surge all the way north to. The snow ratios in the White Mountains north of this heavy snow band will be pretty impressive, I can easily see 12-16" above 1,500 feet

Yeah the pattern in March is starting to look really interesting for the Northeast U.S., including all of New England. Models are hinting at a retrograding ridge into Greenland and a second persistent ridge in the Eastern Pacific through Alaska. That combination should squeeze much colder air in Canada south and provide the necessary blocking for our more classic, slow-moving Northeast U.S. snow storms.

There will be two shots at it! The first is light & right at the morning commute in/south of Durham. The second is more interesting and moves through just after sunset ahead of a vorticity plume, I like up to 0.5" out of that round

This is the kind of reasonable intelligence that continues to make the Granite State the smartest in the entire country!

I mean, I wouldn't place that high up on my list of things to do either. She's better off going late Saturday into Sunday when Sunday's highs climb 20 degrees higher

If she and her group are adequately prepared, then I think that section of the hike isn't impossible. My main worry is actually blowing snow reducing visibility & obscuring trail markers. The girl Sotelo who perished on the Franconia Ridge succumbed to that exact issue.

"All callsigns on this net: this the Mt. Washington evac site. We're holding our own but have glassed enemies to the west on the cog railway, and are taking fire from that direction"

I hope the snow forecast coming out shortly is a hit too 😬

🫡

Anytime!!

I'm glad! The company I work for forecasts for a variety of companies, DPWs, etc. in ME, so I'm closely following this in your neck of the woods as well!

Aren't eggs in shorter supply too right now? Might as well purchase that entire section of the store while you're at it

I am humbled 🫡

Well given residual snow, gusty NW winds above the tree line, wind chills falling below -20°F in the afternoon, & trails potentially hard to navigate after fresh snow, my initial thought is she should wait. A few questions:

1. What trail will she be on and what's the hut she's trying to reach?

2. What time is she starting the hike on Friday?

I very much agree with CT DEEP's assessment that what we saw in CT is from other systems in the Southern Plains. Those particles lofted into the atmosphere are (depending on the exact size) very ideal as cloud condensation nuclei, which are particles that water vapor condenses to and form larger water droplets. These droplets then fall to the ground in larger storms, which we've seen a few times now. Given we've had a few predominant low-level SW flow regimes prior to this report, I'm even more convinced it's dust from the Plains.

The HYSPLIT modeling ARL offers allows you to run archived parcel trajectories and dispersion, I'm half-tempted to run one to see where all that smoke ended up.

I'll keep this next statement as apolitical as possible: multiple facets leading up to and during the response to this disaster should show all of us how corrupt entire agencies and the broader U.S. government have become, regardless of which party has control.

Look at how this train wasn't classified as carrying very hazardous materials, the arresting of local journalists covering the event, the complete silence by multiple federal agencies for nearly a week (eerily similar to the Soviet Union during Chernobyl), a failure to share critical information in a timely manner, covering for a private company clearly in the wrong (eerily similar to Japan covering TEPCO during Fukushima-Daiichi), I can keep going.

I've had similar issues with the dissemination of critical information about this controlled burn from the beginning, the town hall in East Palestine last night was revealing and shows folks there are even more frustrated about this.

Let's focus on the HYSPLIT modeling I've shown and another pair of images released by NOAA ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) referenced in another post below. The moment this burn was ignited, ARL was supporting the local NWS forecast office and other government agencies by running a high-resolution HYSPLIT WRF nest over that burn. Essentially, as new info about the burn and weather analysis data came in, they were running new plume dispersion forecasts, likely at least 4 times a day but probably once an hour. None of these frequently updated data were readily visible to the public to my knowledge, which is totally unacceptable.

Nope, though he taught one of my meteorology classes at my college!

I've waited all my life for this moment lol

Nope, a town in Middlesex County!