TheCloudBoy

TheCloudBoy t1_jdkvqwe wrote

So let's do some math here for those curious (as am I) about this rather lavish projection:

The average home electricity usage amounts to ~886 kWh/month, so this array is expected to generate 14.40 GWh/month. The report cites 50 MW of generation daily, which is laughably small compared to the next smallest renewables generation source (wood burning at 204 MW) in NE ISO's portfolio. And we haven't even discussed the impact of weather in New England and its role in reducing this output during solar hours.

As PJM (the grid interconnect) has recently realized to our south, reality often paints a much different picture with renewables as of now compared to traditional thermal generation. Sure, the 50 MW of battery storage is rather attractive, but consider that wholly inadequate when we get into regimes where demand outpaces both generation and reserves in storage. This is probably going to be most noticeable in the winter.

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TheCloudBoy t1_jcyb7tk wrote

To my understanding (I've been closely watching this as part of a joint weather-equities/commodities venture I'm in), the U.S. panicked and began flooding the market heating oil market starting late 2022 with extra supply from our SPR.

This was not widely discussed or even well understood in local media (shocker), but the prevailing thinking is that this occurred to stem outrage in the Northeast U.S. as oil prices soared. It's also *just* coming out now that U.S. based shale production has been massively underwhelming for months, despite the lavish numbers coming out from the EIA. This would further bolster the idea that SPR releases were targeting demand in the Northeast markets.

I believe both sweet & sour crude stored in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is of quality, however it's entirely possible that a) it loses this quality the longer it sits in storage and b) you're ultimately seeing the results of this.

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TheCloudBoy t1_jc77i9k wrote

For those curious why the power outage numbers are skyrocketing across the southern Monadnock Region, consider:

  1. This part of the state has a high number & density of conifers (evergreens)
  2. 5-15" of snow have already fallen across this area, with more on the way through late tonight. The majority of this snow (as expected) is heavy and wet, as evident from low observed SLRs & wet bulb temperatures near 32°F
  3. Conifer trees provide a larger surface area for wet snow to clump and quickly aggregate, which is exacerbated by a lack of unloading under relatively calm winds
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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jc3gnms wrote

This has been a challenge, especially given I was using a more detailed color wheel and attempted to hop between shades at a decent clip to help color blind folks. My only hiccup with using WMUR's color table is I don't want to be associated in *any way* with their products, otherwise I'd be working for them. I may implement a similar shade scheme like theirs, but modify it heavily.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jc05np0 wrote

Oh, are you finding the division between Belknap & Carroll is tough to see between Lake Winnipesaukee with how dark the lake coloring is? Obviously keeping an eye on the snow grids will be the most important, as divisions won't follow the county line!

Check out this brighter lake coloring to see if that helps: https://imgur.com/a/bcriiMn

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jbzmzwl wrote

Good question! The impact scale is geared towards how I'd expect most people to react here:

Low: Travel is manageable with proper precautions

Moderate: Travel is degraded, proactive road treatment on primary roads will offer some improvement

High: Travel is severely degraded, regardless of road treatment

Major: Travel is essentially impossible, regardless of road treatment

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TheCloudBoy t1_jbjuweh wrote

>"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist"
>
>- President Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961

This may be a hot take for some, but I consider Eisenhower one of our most visionary presidents our country has ever elected into office.

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