This data demonstrates than inflation is typically lower in the second half of the year, especially in November and December. So it would appear this year the inflation data is simply following the historical trend. Only if inflation doesn't rise in the January to March data can you say that inflation has peaked and isn't following the trend.
I did the math to calculate the average monthly inflation in the USA at an annualized rate since 1950.
History shows that inflation is typically low in November and December. While it is highest in February, March, and June.
This provides a compelling reason why inflation has not yet peaked. The fall in inflation that the USA is seeing now may just be the typical seasonal pattern before inflation surges again over the next few months.
Historical Average Monthly Inflation Shows That Inflation is Typically Lower at End of Year 1950-2022 CPI-U Annualized [OC]
Sparta89 OP t1_j2tw74u wrote
Reply to comment by ImagineLosingTheGame in Historical Average Monthly Inflation Shows That Inflation is Typically Lower at End of Year 1950-2022 CPI-U Annualized [OC] by Sparta89
This data demonstrates than inflation is typically lower in the second half of the year, especially in November and December. So it would appear this year the inflation data is simply following the historical trend. Only if inflation doesn't rise in the January to March data can you say that inflation has peaked and isn't following the trend.