> Given the vastness of outerspace, ... why is it that we see no large evidence of completely destructive AIs?... I would expect us to see some evidence for it for other species. Yet we are entirely empty?... we should see widescale destruction if not a galaxy completely overridden by AI.
This counterargument doesn't work if we believe in the (very reasonable IMO) grabby aliens model.
Some facts and assumptions:
information moves at the speed of light
strong alien AIs would probably move at some significant fraction of the speed of light. let's say 1%.
civilizations probably develop extremely quickly, but in very rare conditions (that take a lot of time to occur); e.g. the Universe is 14 billion years old, Earth is 4.5 billion years old, and human-society-looking-at-the-stars is only 10,000 years old.
humanity appeared relatively early in the cosmic timescale; there are trillions of years in our future during which life should only become more common
"grabby" aliens would take control over their sections of space in a way that prevents new space civilizations from forming
-> If/when a "grabby alien AI" got created, it would spread around our galaxy - and eventually, the universe - so quickly, that it's incredibly unlikely for young civilizations to see it. much more likely for the alien to either not exist (yet), or to expand and gain control of places.
-> since we appear to be safe and alone and "early", we can't say AI won't take over the universe, and actually we are well-positioned to be the ones to develop that AI.
Shemetz t1_jeegpal wrote
Reply to comment by DragonForg in AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities by Eliezer Yudkowsky -- "We need to get alignment right on the first critical try" by Unfrozen__Caveman
> Given the vastness of outerspace, ... why is it that we see no large evidence of completely destructive AIs?... I would expect us to see some evidence for it for other species. Yet we are entirely empty?... we should see widescale destruction if not a galaxy completely overridden by AI.
This counterargument doesn't work if we believe in the (very reasonable IMO) grabby aliens model.
Some facts and assumptions:
-> If/when a "grabby alien AI" got created, it would spread around our galaxy - and eventually, the universe - so quickly, that it's incredibly unlikely for young civilizations to see it. much more likely for the alien to either not exist (yet), or to expand and gain control of places. -> since we appear to be safe and alone and "early", we can't say AI won't take over the universe, and actually we are well-positioned to be the ones to develop that AI.