Seattle2017

Seattle2017 t1_jcc3qc0 wrote

What should SVB have done with interest rates started to go up? They had a lot of long term bonds then with lower interest rates, and they apparently had that surge of deposits, partly leading to them loading up with long term bonds. If they immediately sold some of the old ones, they'd have had some of the losses that sank them. They didn't know how far it was going to go on interest rates (each one adding to their potential threat). The strategy that would have worked better in retrospect would be buy more shorter term bonds, fewer longer term bonds - but then they'd have lower returns (as longer term bonds pay better). Was this an obvious problem they should have dealt with earlier, or was it impossible to foresee?

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Seattle2017 t1_j4kbyl4 wrote

software engineers often don't have any legal requirements. A few crazy places want iso9000 but that's almost a joke, a hugely painful and probably useless certification. Some big companies might use that. Anyway, we can automate ourselves out of a job very easily.

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Seattle2017 t1_iyetbqi wrote

Clearly you are a hydrogen enthusiast. But I don't feel like you are acknowledging the issues people are raising. Like using electricity from the desert to split water to get hydrogen. Why not just use power lines to send that power to people? Hydrogen has potential, but it has big issues that aren't solved: (1) making it efficiently (lots of ideas like use solar power electricity but you can just put that power in the grid). (2) in practice virtually all h2 comes from fossil fuels. (3) almost no h2 vehicle market (did toyota give up yet?), almost no fueling places (california had 2, are there more?). (4) expensive to add new fueling places, unlike ever-present electrical outlets (5) doesn't really get cars very far, because it's not very compressed I take this back I checked at https://www.toyota.com/mirai/ and they say 400 miles for their best car. So that's good.

It has two great advantages, (1) once it's separated, it's not creating any exhaust when burned, (2) refuel your car in 5 minutes like a gas station.

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Seattle2017 t1_ixbc1s0 wrote

I don't see UBI happening in the US. Hard to say how far other democracies would go. The US has our own crazy delusional "social safety nets are a terrible thing" going on. I can't see the much more conservative US older generation ever voting for it (I almost wrote "allowing it"). The us is in a near fight with itself anyway, it will take a good amount of time before the younger generations take their place politically. After more and more jobs are lost to automation, how will people support themselves.? And how would the govt pay for more welfare? It doesn't matter if everything is suddenly much cheaper, it still costs something. My suspicion is this would be a time of extreme social turmoil, much more than now. It could be like the time of the Luddites resisting automation in textiles (https://www.history.com/news/industrial-revolution-luddites-workers).

This wholesale death of large numbers of jobs already looks to be happening just from electric cars replacing large numbers of mechanics, companies that design and manufacture internal combustion drive trains, alternators, emission inspection stations, mufflers, tune-ups, that will all be gone in a little over 10 years. It's certain that cars will go to electric, 5 million people will lose jobs in the us. Imagine how angry that will make blue collar america. And this won't even take any advancements over where we are today, no AI advancements are needed. Add on top of that the end of trucking as an occupation, the large industry that has truck stops and local jobs across the US, repairs and maintains diesel trucks (self driving trucks can take over between big cities). Yes, it will be great to avoid the need for that grinding long-haul hard job, but there aren't new jobs for those people.

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