If the markets rally, the Fed will just keep raising and or hold the rate at 5% for a long time until the markets get the message. The Fed is not happy the market is trying to lead on a pivot.

I think we are in a different era. 2010s low-rate Fed assistance. I believe that is over for a long time.

I don't do options. I tried a few times in 2021. Was not good.

I generally try to take positions. In this case, if I was looking for something direct on gas, it might be UNG ticker. Or if I want to get cute, a leveraged ticker like BOIL. (But they only work for trades really, not investments)

Companies I might consider for Natural Gas, Cheniere (LNG), Chesapeake (CHK), Energy Transfer (ET), Williams (WMB). One speculative I keep an eye on is Tellurian (TELL).

This is futures. (your OP says "prices" futures are not the price)

What ticker/trade are you planning on using for said "free money"

With most they only tend to work on a volatility trade and not over the long run. On natural gas, I'd rather own businesses that stand to profit from increasing production and pricing differentials.

Over the last 6 months their end rate has moved up, as has the time they anticipate holding it that high. So yes, it can change, and did change to higher and longer.

The markets, equities and bonds are stuck in 2020, 2021 thinking. My opinion.

That was 2020.

What's the source?

Henry Hub is generally considered to be the national pricing for the US.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu) (eia.gov)

Huh? Where? The current price is above all years (outside of COVID years) going back to a few weeks in 2014.

Are you talking about UNG? (Which isn't natural gas price). Are you talking about LNG prices? Are you talking about Natural Gas Prices outside the US?

US10Y: 3.525% -0.026 (0.00%) (cnbc.com)

Except they can.

I don't know why the market is stuck on 2 25 hikes. That would leave them at 4.75-5%. Under their dot plot, under what they project the end rate to be (which is 5.1, so they'd go 5-5.25)?

Market Probability Tracker - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)

If there was a 50/50 split, or something close to that between 50 and 25 basis points, I'd say yes. But it's 25. I thought it would be 50 a while back, but never materialized in data.

What he will do is highlight the end rate, dot plot. Which is still above 5%. Which would take 2 more hikes to get to. He will try to talk markets down without hitting a 50 basis point hammer.

It's going to take months for the market to realize that higher rates are here to stay and that there is no rate cut coming this year.

It's going above, but it's probably sideways. And eventually, later this year, when it becomes obvious consumers are tapped, inflation isn't at 2%, and the Fed is not cutting rates, the hopium exhausts.

>Also, Europe best selling car has been model 3/y, I don’t see things slowing down there.

Their market share rapidly declined in Europe. My point about that would be, the expectation that Tesla will continue forever growing 50% is wrong and it's likely to see a big leg down on the rate soon.

> Despite the financial circumstances, Q3/Q4 have exceeded expectations. Q1 sales numbers will be higher with affordability . Also, this is speculation but their next car will be a compact cheaper alternative.

They beat lowered estimates. And only by 5-6% (far lower than the average 20-25% beats they've had for a long time).

Next car? Tesla's pipeline is a clear weakness. In that, they don't have one.

> Competition is no where near, I rarely see a ford lighting, Mach-e or ioniq 5 because of their production being sub-par

Tesla market share dropped from 74 to 65% in US in 2022. By 2025 year end it will be less than 25%.

Maybe. We're seeing erosion of the brand in statistical data, people's financial circumstances are different than 2020, 2021, 2022, competitors rising (in Europe, China where other EVs are available, Tesla's share has been obliterated), backlog is gone.

Even if they sell a lot. Might be net down earnings on lowered margins.

I think it's down even more haha.

I'd buy those pooooooots on Tesla.

Think it would be worth separating energy to show exactly how small it is in market cap% of market.

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy

Arguably hasn't peaked yet.

And even if it did. Why don't markets, investors understand the Fed uses a lot of measurements outside of inflation to determine rate policy.

Counter it's debatable if core PCE (Fed's preferred measure) has peaked.

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy

Also. The Fed rate is dependent on more than inflation target. The Fed uses a lot of data.