> The war's danger to Ukrainian civilians was 0.11% in 2022 (based on the highest estimate I've seen of 40,000 civilians killed out of about 36,000,000 currently there)
This is only the odds of dying from the war, you can still get murdered in Ukraine for reasons unrelated to the war. Is the murder rate in Ukraine lower than 0.02%? From some brief googling, it looks like the official rate is 0.006%, so from that you're less likely to be killed in Ukraine that Tijuana.
There are two wrinkles I'm not sure how to handle, however. First, most of the people murdered in Tijuana aren't foreigners, they're murdered because of conflicts between local gangs who don't want the attention of foreign governments. Second, the murder rate in Ukraine right now is probably higher than the official percentage. Unfortunately, the murder rate typically goes up when a country is in war since resources are scarcer and there's some degradation of the social order.
ProcrustesTongue t1_j43m6pj wrote
Reply to comment by we_are_mammals in Ukrainian refugee 'went home to see doctor as Scottish wait too long' by Thefriendlyfaceplant
Neat! Overall I think you're about right.
> The war's danger to Ukrainian civilians was 0.11% in 2022 (based on the highest estimate I've seen of 40,000 civilians killed out of about 36,000,000 currently there)
This is only the odds of dying from the war, you can still get murdered in Ukraine for reasons unrelated to the war. Is the murder rate in Ukraine lower than 0.02%? From some brief googling, it looks like the official rate is 0.006%, so from that you're less likely to be killed in Ukraine that Tijuana.
There are two wrinkles I'm not sure how to handle, however. First, most of the people murdered in Tijuana aren't foreigners, they're murdered because of conflicts between local gangs who don't want the attention of foreign governments. Second, the murder rate in Ukraine right now is probably higher than the official percentage. Unfortunately, the murder rate typically goes up when a country is in war since resources are scarcer and there's some degradation of the social order.
Again, nice analysis!