Okra_Smart

Okra_Smart t1_j9vi0oo wrote

Still bullish after a complete reopening of Freeport LNG. Europe backed away from russian gas for good and will be importing US gas in the next few years, even if the war ends today.

Germany scrapped completely Nord Stream 2, realized it was too dependant on russian gas and the pipe will probably never see a single day of operation.

5

Okra_Smart t1_j9vfxx3 wrote

Natural gas is widely used for various purposes: it is the cheapest alternative for industrial purposes. For example the TSLA factory in Berlin uses natural gas. I don't know about the other locations. Other businesses use natural gas too.

Also, natural gas could be used for the purpose of cooling down. For example, the energy consumption rises a lot during hot days because of the extensively using of air conditioning.

So there are a lot of reasons why it is simply not true, that natural gas should be rising only during winters. Natural gas surprisingly can rise a lot during hot summers.

But the main price driver is the production and export of natural gas. For example, USA produces nowadays much, much more natural gas than 15 years ago and this is clearly visible in the charts. Now that Europe is going for the cheap US natural gas, the price is going up and reaching levels, unseen for almost 15 years.

8

Okra_Smart t1_j9vd93y wrote

Isn't Freeport expected to open at the end of March?

Edit: it looks like it is partially open now. I agree completely on the sentiment, but i struggle with the fact, that the downside was so steep in the last 3 months, that technically there should be a retrace and maybe even try for another go to 2.10-2.20. Not that I hope for it, i have 76000 contracts of natural gas, worth around 195 000$ with ngas at 2.57..

2