Monimonika18
Monimonika18 t1_jadhi4i wrote
Reply to comment by cjo20 in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
Thanks for pointing out that commenter's moving goalposts.
Monimonika18 t1_ja91klv wrote
Reply to comment by johrnjohrn in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
Because "not 6" is 5 times more likely to happen than 6 on a six sided die in a single throw. You're focusing on the one combination result that is 6 for all 1000 dice rolled and comparing it to the many combinations that are not that one single very specific result you want.
If the billionaire gave you a die to roll 1000 times to get a single specific order of numbers like "123545453621145..." you'd still have the same horrible odds of getting that one result.
Now if it were 1000 die to roll and the result must be all 6s except one single roll anywhere among the 1000 rolls, your odds of getting that goes up because there are more than 1 results that match that criteria.
Make it must get only one 6 anywhere out of 1000 throws/die while the rest are not 6 and your odds are much better because there are even more results that match that criteria.
Going back, if you had already thrown all 6s for 999 throws and you only have to throw the last die, your chances are 1/6 because the result you want is 1 out of 6 results now. The more 6s you got, the probability of getting the rest of the throws as 6s went up because there are less possible results available for the rest of the row of throws. Up until you achieve all 6s, at which point the probability is now 1 out of 1.
Monimonika18 t1_ja8ub2r wrote
All the results of dice throws are equivalent to each other... if you pay attention and take note of EVERY die number, that is. But if you're focusing on just the number 6, then the other numbers are all considered "not 6"s.
The "not 6"s are 5 times more likely to appear than 6 on a six sided dice. The probabilities are drastically different now.
The chances of a 1 being rolled after a 6 is the same as a 6 being rolled. But the chances of a "not 6" being rolled after a 6 is much greater.
A "13554663" result is just as likely as "66666666" to occur. But if you only note the 6s, then "########" (all "not 6"s) is much more likely than "66666666" to happen because "########" fits with multiple possible results while "66666666" fits with only one possible result.
Monimonika18 t1_j8wl99m wrote
Well, the one that has flying reindeer pulling his sleigh not only lacks concrete evidence/logic of existing but also has history showing that he was deliberately made up.
However, Saint Nicholas who he was partially based on was a real person as far as anyone can tell.
The thing about a lot of deities is that the attributes to them can be as vague or inscrutable as one likes to avoid having to give proof of their existence. Like when people say, "God works in mysterious ways," to get away with saying God is all-good even in the face of tragedy.
Monimonika18 t1_j69aw4i wrote
Reply to comment by J_Babe87 in The Four Horsemen, me, digital, 2023 by J_Babe87
Thank you for explaining, rather than being like the previous chicken-brained downvoter who couldn't use words (no reply, can only peck, plus is too chicken-hearted to go beyond pecking).
I'm obviously not familiar with Christian iconography and so didn't recognize that it was a lamb (instead of a goat) and certainly did not connect the 4 horsemen with lamb/Jesus. I assumed those two concepts were seperate from each other.
Again, thank you for replying and informing me of my mistake in what the bottom creature was meant to represent.
Monimonika18 t1_j68j80y wrote
Reply to The Four Horsemen, me, digital, 2023 by J_Babe87
My interpretation:
The Devil is on the bottom chilling and reading a book. The 4 horsemen that are raining from heaven above are not his doing nor problem.
Monimonika18 t1_j27fr28 wrote
...the word "bath" came to mind when I looked at the blueberries.
Anyway, looks delicious.
Monimonika18 t1_iuah95g wrote
Reply to Brúarfoss, Iceland [OC] [3163x4742] by jameshunter3
I noticed a blip of yellow around the bottom right of this gorgeous pic. I'm guessing it's vegetation? Kind of impressed it's able to survive at that spot.
Monimonika18 t1_jee9hlt wrote
Reply to comment by britreme in LPT If you think your partner is about to propose but don’t want to keep getting manicures, just keep a set of press ons around. by britreme
What if a friend takes pictures/video during the proposal? Demand they delete the evidence from their device, you put on nails, and then have a do-over? What a way to destroy the mood.
If there are certain conditions you want for a proposal, COMMUNICATE those conditions to your partner.