Mirathecat22

Mirathecat22 t1_j28aar5 wrote

They don’t need the west though they just need Turkey. With Russias military already wrapped up, that’s all they really need, Russia really can’t afford to to fight Turkey.

If anything were to happen, the west would let it go until Russia were beaten and then send a peace keeping force to occupy Armenia to make sure Turkey and Azerbaijan don’t mess it up anymore than it would already be. Thus giving Armenia a sense of security, and also in the end the Nagorno-Karabakh area probably gets given to Azerbaijan in exchange for more security guarantees.

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Mirathecat22 t1_j22w7m8 wrote

They don’t have everything though, Russia might have more but Ukraine has longer arms that hit their supply dumps that really constrain Russias ability to maintain those lines and continue lobbing those shells towards Ukraine. This has been Russias biggest problem ever since Ukraine got their hands on HIMARS, they haven’t been able to have reliable supply lines, ammo dumps or consistent positioning.

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Mirathecat22 t1_j22t7oe wrote

They did everything they could to split themselves. There’s no surprise that everyone who broke away from Yugoslavia, much like those who were eastern bloc, ran straight to the west.

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Mirathecat22 t1_j22s9hd wrote

For being a country that accepted accountability and then worked its way into becoming one of the most powerful, influential and friendly countries in Europe? Serbia could learn from them, rather than the consistent denial and being a Russian puppet.

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Mirathecat22 t1_iycdioz wrote

I don’t disagree here, however Kazakhstan at the very least has already been shipping oil/gas (I don’t specifically remember which natural resource it was) through to Azerbaijan, while I don’t like Azerbaijan too much (mainly their government) it can be a big step in the right direction away from Russia for multiple countries. Especially if Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan want to move away from Russias influence, and recent times suggest they do, especially Kazakhstan moving away from the Cyrillic alphabet in favour of the Latin alphabet.

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Mirathecat22 t1_iybmbkm wrote

I’m willing to bet neither want to be in partnership with Russia when they can do better without them.

And with Russias weakening global position both politically and militarily the threat of an invasion like Ukraine isn’t as likely, and they know they’d get support from western backed countries in the same event.

It’s an interesting time.

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