I think that one of the weak signals that exists today that could become one of tomorrow's black swans is an increase in longevity. While several authors and researchers have made the news with books or studies stating that humans could conceivably live to be 200-years-old or more, I don't believe most people (and even many futurists) really believe that it's possible. With U.S. life expectancy having doubled in the last century - and only seeming to plateau now due to the impacts of sugar and highly processed foods - it's conceivable that technologies that are only now gaining prominence could at least double it again, and perhaps in a much shorter timeframe. Life expectancy was fairly stable for centuries, until discoveries like sterilization and antibiotics allowed it to increase dramatically, relatively basic advancements when compared with gene editing and targeted therapies. With this possible inevitability, everything from employment to inheritance to economic inequality could be radically affected.
LatinoFuturist t1_j7rn8kz wrote
Reply to What weak signals or drivers of change—that receive limited attention today—are most likely to create signifiant impacts over the next 10-20 years? Where are the black swans hiding? by NewDiscourse
I think that one of the weak signals that exists today that could become one of tomorrow's black swans is an increase in longevity. While several authors and researchers have made the news with books or studies stating that humans could conceivably live to be 200-years-old or more, I don't believe most people (and even many futurists) really believe that it's possible. With U.S. life expectancy having doubled in the last century - and only seeming to plateau now due to the impacts of sugar and highly processed foods - it's conceivable that technologies that are only now gaining prominence could at least double it again, and perhaps in a much shorter timeframe. Life expectancy was fairly stable for centuries, until discoveries like sterilization and antibiotics allowed it to increase dramatically, relatively basic advancements when compared with gene editing and targeted therapies. With this possible inevitability, everything from employment to inheritance to economic inequality could be radically affected.