Grunchlk

Grunchlk t1_j9ousn1 wrote

I don't disagree that Iran could make one quickly (miniaturization would take a bit longer though.) I do disagree that they're already making one because they've had this capacity for 20 years now. 2002 is when they performed the implosion tests:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/iran-nuclear-bomb-design-capability/2021/05/14/a47e75cc-b4f8-11eb-ab43-bebddc5a0f65_story.html

As of now Iran benefits more from threatening to cross the line that it does if it actually crosses it. Iran is hoping to leverage the threat to get a better deal. Maybe that won't work because of their support of Russia in the Ukraine War. However, that's what they're likely doing. If they cross the line then they likely get attacked by Israel, KSA and the US as well as max sanctions, embargoes, blockades, etc.

I highly expect Iran to state they'll be converting the TRR back to using HEU (as per its original design) instead of LEU. Then they'll have a legitimate reason for needing large quantities of weapons grade uranium. This puts them as close to that line as possible without crossing it.

If Israel, the US and KSA attack then Iran will make a bomb immediately and detonate one in the desert signalling the attacks are an existential threat which they'll respond to with maximum force.

The benefit of the JCPOA wasn't that it prevented Iran from having the know-how to make a bomb, it was that it ensured all the monitored uranium wasn't diverted and that it was converted to fuel rods (or at least stored in UN monitored containers/locations.) It also gave the IAEA broader ability to monitor for a parallel program.

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Grunchlk t1_j9oscwk wrote

You don't believe Iran has mastered the fuel cycle? That's demonstrably true and universally accepted. The UN, IAEA, US, EU, etc, all agree that Iran has. The fact that they can trivially produce 84% HEU is also proof.

You don't believe Iran has missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads? I'll defer to Uzi Rabin, the father of Israel's missile program, who says they do and also says their missiles are quite more advanced that people believe.

You don't believe Iran has conducted implosion tests? This is one of the major sticking points of the JCPOA, the US and UN want access to Parchin because they have evidence that Iran did exactly that.

If you believe all these things are lies then you believe that Iran isn't capable of building a bomb, and thus any talk of such is propaganda.

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Grunchlk t1_j9o8bxd wrote

Iran has had the capability to build a bomb for at least 20 years. If they were trying to build one, they'd already have an arsenal full of them.

  • Iran has mastered the fuel cycle. They have advanced centrifuges and thus enriching uranium to weapons grade is trivial for them. The bigger question is why haven't they?
  • Iran has missiles capable of carrying a miniaturized nuclear warhead, yet they have only conventional warheads in their arsenal.
  • Iran is believed to have conducted a number of implosion tests pre-2003. This would indicate they have enough knowledge for a trigger device.

Iran is using the threat of building a bomb as a tool for negotiations. Note how when the JCPOA was in effect Iran didn't enrich above 19.75%. Then once the US abandoned the agreement and forced the EU into non-compliance Iran cranked the purity up to 60+%. Now we're at 84%. Why would Iran keep increasing the purity while simultaneously letting everyone know? Because it's about securing a new deal.

However, it's also a warning that if anyone attacks Iran, they will purse a bomb and have one in less than 6 months.

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Grunchlk t1_j29e22g wrote

Infrastructure can be rebuilt. If you destroy all the power and water utilities, you make the place uninhabitable thus all the Ukrainians leave. When the war is over, presuming you've won, then the land is vacant and you can move your people in without issue. You don't have to deal with property rights, or civil issues, or partisans, just rebuild and that's it.

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Grunchlk t1_iye6hsk wrote

If the estate went through probate (assuming all protocols were followed) and you didn't cosign then you shouldn't be on the hook for anything. I would politely tell them the estate is closed and if they have further questions they can contact the court. The court will have all your filings for notifications and such, so they'll be able to see they missed out on being able to collect. There's a limited window for creditors to come collect money for this very reason.

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Grunchlk t1_iydw24y wrote

Did you co-sign on any loans or debt consolidation agreements? I would politely ask this company to explain why it is they believe you're responsible for any portion of it and then back that up with a written document mailed to you.

Generally speaking, in the US anyway, when a person dies their estate now owes the debt. The is what probate is for, through probate the executor consolidates the decedent's assets, pays their debts, and this disburses the funds to the heirs.

It's more complicated than that, but that's the gist. Many companies will try to guilt you into taking ownership of the debt. If you're the heir of an estate that when through probate and you didn't co-sign on any loans then they're just trying to get you to give them money for free.

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Grunchlk t1_iydds3b wrote

I always pay early, sometimes twice a billing period if I don't feel like paying it in full the first time. My credit hasn't been affected negatively, can't say if it's been affected positively. The bank keeps increasing my credit limit though, trying to get me to make larger purchases I guess.

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Grunchlk t1_iydceuv wrote

>This was probably some Russian sympathizer who's brain has been turned to mush by Russian propaganda.

Sure but if it were an Iranian expatriate doing this to an Israeli embassy it would be widely regarded as a state sponsored terror attack and Iran itself would be culpable and subject to reprisals.

As it stands you're effectively painting it as "a passionate expatriate that got a little carried away." It's terrorism. Russia is executing a terrorist campaign in Russia and encouraging, either directly or indirectly, its expatriates to do the same.

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Grunchlk t1_itz239b wrote

Wagner: It says here on your resume that you _almost_ fought in the Afghan War against the Taliban in 2020. Why 'almost'?

Commando: Because the Taliban paid me not to fight!

Wagner: So you're saying if we pay you to fight, you'll fight!?

Commando: Absolutely! I'll shoot at whomever the highest bidder tells me to.

Wagner: You're hired! When does the bidding end?

Commando: That's the great thing, it doesn't!

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