I disagree. Even if there was a change or slowdown it would not be predictable now we are at such an early stage in the adoption of the technology and what it will be used for.

based

Exponential growth has pretty much been the standard in AI and computing for years AI winters do not happen anymore.

It's exponential growth 2022 already encompasses the vast majority of progress in the field 2023 will be no different.

There has been exponentially more progress each and every year, it's exponential growth not linear which is why based solely on what was achieved by June let alone after it puts 2022 in a league of it's own when it comes to AI advances.

Great rebuttle.

GATO, DALLE 2, CHAT GPT, Minerva, Pathways, etc.

https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1542723429580689408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1542729464714391552%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=

This was all from the middle of the year.

AI models are not progressing at the rate of smart phones they are progressing at much greater pace than that yet to read the more conservative opinions on their progress you'd assume that AI developments were made at timeframes that would be equal to say home video game consoles being released. Things that would require decades of progress in other fields occur within weeks or months in the field of AI development.

Imagine showing Dalle-2's image generation to someone in 2014. Imagine trying to explain what Google Pathways can achieve to someone who had only used Cleverbot before. The gulf is staggering and the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development and all of that existed in May.

In the first week of June we had:

https://sites.google.com/view/multi-game-transformers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30761-2

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-artificial-skin-robots.html

Then later in that month there would be:

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/955133

https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-interview-ea64d916d917

https://twitter.com/i/status/1536378529415315458

https://gweb-research-parti.web.app/parti_paper.pdf

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-deep-framework-pose-robotic-arms.html

AI generated podcasts: https://lexman.rocks/

AI learned how to play Minecraft: https://www.techradar.com/news/ai-can-now-play-minecraft-just-as-well-as-you-heres-why-that-matters

Then GODEL:

https://www.marktechpost.com/2022/06/25/microsoft-ai-researchers-open-source-godel-a-large-scale-pre-trained-language-model-for-dialog/

A language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM. https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-fake-robots-ropes-faster.html

And that was only up to the end of June.

Do not take these sources for it either Jack Clark sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1542715805657210881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1542715805657210881%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

That is literally someone claiming that:

"Idk why, but I have a feeling AI will continue to progress, but not at the rate it did this year; the bar was set high in 2022."

All you said was you haven't see anyone claim it, well there is someone doing exactly that. Instead of reading the url, you maybe should have read the comment?

Here ya go:

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/zu5vl6/with_2022_being_such_an_explosive_year_for_ai/j1hb99e/

Probably by May of 2022 we had already achieved more than we had in all previous years, it took 5 months for that to happen, it could be sooner in 2023.

Exponential growth is something many do not understand, so many times I have seen people in this sub reddit talk about 10 or 20 years from now as if they are at all predictable when the sum total of all progress in AI will be a small percentage of what we achieve next year.

We are not discussing ChatGPT being used as a teacher anymore than we'd be discussing DallE 1 as being an artist.

What would you have said about AI generated art in 2021? Or an AI assistant in 2021?

This technology goes from being a proof of concept with very mild examples to incredible levels of performance within months.

Most of these functions are also quite simple which means it takes less compute and costs less to replace them, as the technology advances this cost keeps going down because the requirements to perform these tasks do not change but the quality of the technology improves regardless.

We definitely do not need super intelligent AI to perform most of these tasks and what we do need becomes more and more affordable and accessible in shorter and shorter time spans.

Grey goo.

Lol. Nft's.

Except that will never happen due to mass proliferation of the technology, there are already billions of phones and a phone that costs a 1/10th of a flagship 5 years ago already outperforms it in all metrics.

Your given scenario is therefore impossible, any company that charges that much for a phone when there are literally thousands of alternatives will go bankrupt and it's customers will buy elsewhere.

Global society doesn't collapse without human extinction at this stage. Tech has come too far.

Could someone tell me where I could find this and how to use it?

So you have concluded that it is in fact not only possible but basically impossible that widespread technology like smartphones or laptops are always going to be options for people or at least they will be for the next several decades.

You are wrong then because as stated you can still buy tech that was obsolete decades ago brand new.

And how many dreamcasts were ever produced? Less than 10 million units. There are literally billions of laptops and smartphones there are too prolific a technology to ever go extinct. A specific model may become rare or unavailable but a smartphone or laptop will always be something you can buy.