Core2score t1_j4ydafx wrote
Man Putin nuked his country's economy big-time. Russia is toast.
People might not realize how dangerous this is for Russia in the long run, but it is catastrophic. Russia isn't really important for the global market outside their energy exports, and those exports were valuable mostly because they were in high demand by the European union, particularly Germany.
With EU no longer buying, supply now greatly exceeds demand for Russian energy, which is why China and India are able to buy at greatly reduced prices that barely leave any profit for Russia.. especially considering how pricier and more difficult delivering that energy to east Asia is compared to Western Europe.
The only other export Russia had many buyers for, their weapons, is also seeing significantly reduced demand because of the war. A combination of the shitty performance against NATO weapons, sanctions making ordering parts much more difficult, and Russia using up their stockpiles in Ukraine have this part pretty much nuked as well.
Russia is done for. It might not show in the short run, but a few years from now the Russian economy could resemble Ukraine's in 2013 or 2014.
LordOfDorkness42 t1_j4yqh4y wrote
Yeah. Fucked pretty much sums it up.
Russia has had troubles for years, but one of the reasons so much of its shit got tolerated was how Putin was seen as this iron fisted genius. Somebody that slowly was stabilizing a country wrecked by the collapse of the old glory, when Soviet fell apart. Somebody that, while not nice, was simply needed in a place of great corruption and hopelessness.
Like, that 180 turn in global opinion is going to be written about for centuries. He went from untouchable genius badass, to Emperor Pantsless The Conman Fooled in freaking months.
Heck, at current rate, with how the war is tearing apart Russia's future one man at a time and undermining basically every bit of international trust it's built since the freaking 90s, I'm really wondering if Russia will even survive the current century.
Not many are still clamouring for a return & reunification of The Sick Man Of Europe, you know? That sort of history that's seldom talked about, because it's inglorious.
Core2score t1_j4ywsgv wrote
The current century? It wouldn't surprise me if the Russian federation collapses before 2030. I'm not saying it certainly will, but if that does happen it wouldn't surprise me.
Think about it, the Soviet Union was much more powerful than Russia, and they didn't fuck up nearly as much, and they still collapsed shortly after their occupation of Afghanistan failed miserably.
Russia doesn't even have the luxury of worrying about occupation, they couldn't even complete the invasion phase.
It's ironic.. Putin wanted to be remembered as a scary ironman and the glorious hero of Russia who restored it to a superpower.. instead he'll go down history as the dummass clown who took on a nation 10X smaller and miscalculated so bad he kickstarted the collapse of his own country.
ConohaConcordia t1_j5025m4 wrote
I think how the Cold War ended really made a lot of people forget how powerful the USSR once was. For a while, it was the world power with the most advanced technologies, with many renowned artists, and with an ideology that seemed to be the future for many people in the world. While the West ultimately emerged victorious in the Cold War, the USSR fought it at an equal footing — something the Russian Federation was never able to do.
Decuriarch t1_j504l4v wrote
Not really, it became very evident after the USSR fell that most of their "power" was just smoke and mirrors. We thought they were ahead of us in the space race, when they really weren't. They never had parity with the US, they just also had nukes and knew how to cast a large shadow. Putin was just emulating the past.
Downtown_Skill t1_j50qm2v wrote
Their technology was far behind and corruption was rampant domestically but there is no denying the influence they had in geopolitics. Shit many of Russia's current allies or sympathizers are left over from the cold war. I live in Vietnam which in general perceives the US as a partner and the US is very much liked here. You don't see any Russian flags anywhere but the hammer and sickle can be found everywhere. The Soviet union was a much more powerful ideological force than Russia if anything.
The Soviet union was a corrupt oppressive hell hole but the more I learn about the cold war the more it seems like the Soviet union at the very least supported a more humane foreign policy than the United States (a very low bar to clear in the cold war) which got them a lot of friends (that they're now losing at a staggering pace)
Edit: and just so no one thinks I'm a Soviet sympathizer because I'm very much not what I mean about the humane foreign policy is that while the USSR definitely had an unethical approach to foreign policy it's hard to beat the United States record of installing a corrupt dictator in the congo, illegally bombing Cambodia and Laos, installing violent dictators in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and pretty much all of Latin America, militarily supporting Pakistan's genocide of Bangladesh, and various other less violent but equally shady things amongst their allies.
The USSR just wasn't quite as busy as the United States, they were more focused on oppressing people back in their Soviet bloc (which included most of eastern Europe at the time)
Core2score t1_j56dokd wrote
If you think the country that brought you the gulags knows anything about being humane you're prolly not right upstairs..
Downtown_Skill t1_j58satm wrote
Yeah that's not what I said at all but okay.
Core2score t1_j56ddod wrote
I mean the USSR was easily on par with the US early on in the space race, then a combination of a much inferior economy and corruption took its toll.
As for their military tech, it wasn't necessarily on par with the US all the time, but they had a very decent defense industry. Meanwhile all Russia can do is design super weapons like the T14 and then execution flops so bad im they become memes among military and defense bloggers.
To say nothing of the much much smaller sphere of influence Russia has today compared to peak Soviet Union.
KingPolle t1_j4yq28a wrote
Just a quick special operation. Three days in and out. 1 year later the prognosis for russias economic future looks really really really dark…
Core2score t1_j4ywz8b wrote
Thousands of years later and we can still see how right Sun Tzu was, know your enemy and know yourself.
It's almost like Putin decided to test that by doing the exact opposite, grossly underestimate your enemy and greatly overestimate yourself.
[deleted] t1_j4zdrvy wrote
[removed]
TurboSalsa t1_j4yyzwt wrote
Russia really doesn't have any options to sell gas at this point. Their ballyhooed Siberia-China pipeline was a dictators' vanity project and the route was designed according to which oligarch was owed favors at the time, and consequently won't make any money.
They can't build LNG terminals for lack of capital, technical workforce, and western equipment.
So while they're able to sell oil, a huge chunk of their gas is stranded at this point.
Hardly_lolling t1_j4z90c2 wrote
>So while they're able to sell oil, a huge chunk of their gas is stranded at this point.
*burned. You can see the flames all the way to Finland from them having to burn the gas because of lack of demand.
(environmentally burning it is bad but just releasing it is much much worse)
FistOfTheMagi t1_j4zjdfv wrote
Russian nuclear energy remains untouched, though.
Probably one of the reasons being the dependence of the ITER project. It's interesting that even if the political situation gets completely heated, that some projects remain unaffected.
Dustinthewindoftime t1_j502ocj wrote
And also crops are fertilizers. Can’t be replaced.
TrumpDesWillens t1_j4zm5ti wrote
Their weapons also aren't anything better than what smaller suppliers are making like the Czechs or the Italians.
PlaugeofRage t1_j4zn3zg wrote
They can't really operate their wells without western companies. They were always fucked long term.
plipyplop t1_j50c61r wrote
Also, there is no trust. The Ruble is rubble, propped up in the most blatantly manipulated and artificial way. The businesses that are there can be "nationalized" on a whim. The expectation of corruption is considered normal. The quality of workers and education is in crisis, if not permanently broken to the point of no return. This will be the beginning of new satellite-states as russia dissolves.
I expect them to soon start selling their own women into human trafficking, and going balls-deep into the drug trade (like Afghanistan). They will have to scrape along like North Korea does, at this rate.
[deleted] t1_j5074pt wrote
I heard Russia found more demand for their gas and oil from countries outside Europe who are in for a long term contract and already building infrastructure to allow mass importation of Russian energies, primarily for China and India. How much can the non-European buyers of Russian gas and oil be able to replace Russia's loss of revenue from Europe? Some experts say the demand from these countries cannot completely replace the demand from Europe, while other experts say it's more than enough to replace it. There's so much conflicting info on this issue I don't know which side is telling the truth.
Janni0007 t1_j50dysa wrote
Oil is easy enough to replace for russia, due to its liquid nature. Gas is another cattle of beast. Pipelines take time to build and those pipelines outside europe do not in fact in anyway replace the volume to europe. (doubly so because of the location of the gas fields in the west instead of siberia)
LNG is expensive to build and maintain. Mostly western expertise as well. So it is rather unlikely that russia is gonna enter that market full force anytime soon.
Core2score t1_j56f621 wrote
But you're missing the point.
Regardless of who they sell their energy to, and in what form they sell it, they have many less buyers now and delivery will be much more difficult and expensive leading to greatly reduced demand.. and this might prove too much for Russia to overcome.
Janni0007 t1_j56fxpg wrote
In parts sure. But there are a lot of things that could influence this either way. A global recession and the consequent slowdown of fossil fuel consumption would be a disaster for russia. If the economy booms and there is a ton of demand either way? Then the impact is far less pronounced.
Oil is to easy to trade and too important for the economy. Someone is always going to buy it. 30-40$ is the cut off for profitability for Russian oil. If it is above that then they will be mostly fine. Below that they are fucked.
AloneListless t1_j50gn02 wrote
!remindme in 2 years
qtx t1_j4zkzso wrote
Don't worry, India is buying up all the gas that used to go to Europe.
marvinhal21 t1_j4zm99h wrote
>Don't worry
Nobody is, except a few Reddit trolls like you lol. Also India buys oil, not gas. At least get your story straight!
lewger t1_j4ztld4 wrote
You know there is no infrastructure to move gas as a liquid or a gas to India. If you're going to lie at least make it plausible.
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