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jackolivier45 t1_j6cg0uj wrote

Reply to comment by LatterTarget7 in Massive fire breaks out at oil refinery in Iran by slc73

I really anticipated something serious would have started in Iran after Netanyahu returned. Back in the days he really wanted to start a war against Iran together with US but the US decided not to fall into the trap. Maybe now he will be successful in his aims. But I am not sure about the whole situation in the middle east, I just base my opinion on tens of hours of documentaries about the whole pretext of the current situation.

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LumixShill t1_j6cxuib wrote

From listening to Pod Save the World routinely it sounds like that was more or less a promise Netanyahu is making.

I agree with another one of the comments here that these recent infrastructure attacks in Iran are probably, at their root, directed by the Israelis.

Really unfortunate time to be stirring up shit though, imo. With the link between Iran and Russia solidifying it could easily be interpreted as another "Western" power directly attacking Russian goals.

My heart tells me that is good, but I really worry about escalation. We're heading towards a very bloody Spring regardless.

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Law-of-Poe t1_j6da17s wrote

Our fears of “escalation” are allowing authoritarians to run wild. we are at or approaching a watershed moment in the world. We either stop (directly or indirectly) these oppressors in their tracks or we tell them we don’t have the willpower to do so.

And China is watching carefully to see what the collective willpower is

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LumixShill t1_j6dbaop wrote

I'm not saying "do nothing". Maybe I'm just naive and worn out because I served in the military for nearly a decade during two wars, and grew up in the era of numerous international peace talks, but I'd really like to see a little bit more effort put into diplomatic solutions before we rattle so many sabers.

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Law-of-Poe t1_j6ddkuo wrote

I would too and there are wars that I don’t agree with (probably the ones you’re mentioning) but when it comes to Russia, I don’t see diplomacy going very far at all. They’ve broken nearly all of their “peace” treaties and operate like the mob. What they’re trying to do is join with other belligerent nations in upending the democratic world order. If we let this come to pass we will be in a world of pain.

China is being icy to them now because they’re failing so hard and because China benefits a lot from their entanglements with the west. But if things ever tip in Russias favor, I wouldn’t be surprised to see China jump at the opportunity to switch to a more aggressive stance against the west as it may be their one opportunity to upend the current structure.

The west is not perfect and has committed a lot of atrocities but I always have to ask myself…do I want to live under a world order whereby liberal and democratic western countries set the rules or one where countries like Russia and china have an equal say

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FoolInTheDesert t1_j6fw970 wrote

Diplomacy can quickly become appeasement and the wars that result from appeasement have historically been far worse than the wars that were fought because diplomacy just didn't work in the first place.

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[deleted] t1_j6dy4wv wrote

[deleted]

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Law-of-Poe t1_j6dze76 wrote

I’d say Iraq and Afghanistan were not dangers to the larger global order. Russia, in combination with Iran and others is absolutely a threat.

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ModsEnthusiast t1_j6d0den wrote

>it could easily be interpreted as another "Western" power directly attacking Russian goals.

so what, honestly? who will this convince that doesn't already hate the 'west' ?

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LumixShill t1_j6d1mnl wrote

It's less about the public perception and more about the kind of impetus that open war between Iran and Israel could add to the current global tensions.

You can look in my profile to find plenty of instances of me criticizing Joe Biden, but I personally think his defense staff has been smart to slowly ramp up the kinds of weaponry being given to Ukraine.

There's a benefit to ramping up slowly because at the end of the day these military decisions are still being made by people, and "here's all our top tier military tech on day one" ramps up tension to 11 and may result in some unfortunate decisions.

The more open war to manage, the harder it will be to keep that balance between ensuring Ukrainian victory, and not causing something like tactical nukes or other WMDs to be deployed.

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ModsEnthusiast t1_j6d203p wrote

>It's less about the public perception and more about the kind of impetus that open war between Iran and Israel could add to the current global tensions.

the world has been expecting this war for like 50 years now, it seems inevitable unless something very drastic happens. Like how the fall of the soviet union stopped WW3 from seeming inevitable

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LumixShill t1_j6d2fhy wrote

We were actually quite close to smoothing relations with Iran during the JCPOA negotiations, but I agree that any relief of tensions that resulted from those dialogues has been completely undone and likely cannot be recovered at this point.

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thisplacemakesmeangr t1_j6d43og wrote

I vaccilate between this take and a darker view including defense contractors and entrenched wealth. Given the same options I'd take Biden every time but this geriatric bullshit has got to go. How many employers out there are clamoring for 80 year olds to run their companies? Wtf are we doing letting them run the world

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Governmentwatchlist t1_j6emgsu wrote

This is a really interesting point. If you wouldn’t want them to lead your 11th grade choir program, why do we want them leading the free world.

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