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geon2k2 t1_j1vlldx wrote

Reply to comment by Jaded_Prompt_15 in Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries that imposed price cap -decree by PatientBuilder499

Why would india buy at normal price? They'll buy it even cheaper than the price cap. Russia cannot stop the oil coming from Siberia as they cannot restart it, if they stop it. Everything will freeze and will become a thick gel. It took western companies nearly 30 years to restart production after they stopped it in the 90s.

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No-Environment-5762 t1_j1ypbij wrote

But india is already buying under price cap. Russia is giving discounted prices to India.

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LessWorseMoreBad t1_j1vtyby wrote

From a "whatever is good for India" perspective, India needs to realize that they have Russia by the short and curlies. They should stop buying for a month and then see how much lower they can get the price.

But, they wont do that b/c going by their choices over the last year Modi has the forward-thinking capability of a goldfish.

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NaCly_Asian t1_j1vmk4v wrote

if Russia stops production completely and takes all their oil off the global market, it would cause the oil price to jump drastically. If India pays 'normal' prices now (say, 80 dollars), it would be cheaper than the elevated prices with messed up supplies (maybe 150+ dollars).

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Kneepi t1_j1vn9f7 wrote

That's not how oil wells work, well they do, but it would be a disaster for Russia's future.

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Consistent_Box908 t1_j1vo09w wrote

You are right. You stop using the well and you simply killing it. It’s not something that can be just stopped and started once in a while. The whole infrastructure would be devastated. If this were so simple they would have stopped by now. They simply can’t.

Btw it’s British/Americans companies that provide insurance for the ships. So if India doesnt have a pipe that covers 90% of their demand they will pay higher price anyways cause someone needs to ship it.

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bigcaprice t1_j1xkxir wrote

> it would be a disaster for Russia's future.

In that case I'm going to assume that's exactly what they'll do.

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geon2k2 t1_j1vomw8 wrote

Why the downvote though. What i said its true, do your checks. If russia stops producing, yes international price will increase but russia will be in even a bigger hole that they are now. Also did you knew they cannot stop production for siberian oil? If not and you learned something from that post, why the downvote?

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NaCly_Asian t1_j1wluar wrote

My thinking is that if the EU has to back down from the price cap due to the effects on their economy, Russia can dictate terms on restarting the oil deal, which I would assume would cover the fines from the breaches of contracts and other compensation. It comes down to who blinks first. Also, OPEC could also tighten the supply even more.

also, I did not know about the oil industry and the effects of stopping the oil drilling. thanks for the info :)

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