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ChemistryVirtual t1_j10c568 wrote

This is exactly what Russia wants, splitting the Ukrainian defences among the southern conflict and creating a new one in the north weakening the defences in the south so to continue plundering along the Black Sea on to Transnistria.

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jackp0t789 t1_j10cl6q wrote

If they wanted to push towards Transnistria, they wouldn't have retreated from their one bridgehead on the west bank of the Dnieper.

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Kakrime t1_j10cv5q wrote

If they atack from belarus probably they would go to towards Lutks Rivne etc

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jackp0t789 t1_j10d2ac wrote

They can barely move a few hundred meters a day in Donbass...

unless Ukraine leaves that entire strip entirely undefended, they aren't going to do much better up there.

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Kakrime t1_j10fwk5 wrote

Right now, no. In some months who knows

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ttkciar t1_j10xsqy wrote

Is there much choice?

If S-400 is positioned on Ukraine's Belarus border, on Ukraine's Russian border, and in Crimea, then between their overlapping areas of coverage there will be nowhere in all of Ukraine where anything can fly that cannot be immediately shot down (except maybe F-35; it might be sufficiently stealthed to avoid detection by S-400, but the Ukrainians don't have that aircraft).

To avoid that situation, the S-400 emplacements would have to be neutralized.

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ttkciar t1_j10znhn wrote

Relatedly, this prompted me to look up ground-to-ground anti-radiation missile systems, and afaict the only such systems that exist are China's B-611MR and Israel's Keres (a ground launching system for AGM-78).

That seems like a pretty grievous oversight. Without a ground-to-ground anti-radiation capability, what are a military's options for attacking S-400 other than overrunning it with tanks or getting close enough with a sufficiently well-stealthed aircraft to launch air-to-ground anti-radiation missiles?

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Incandescent_Lass t1_j11bhls wrote

Waste a bunch of cheap drones until you get your lock, then pop open the expensive bottles.

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Kakrime t1_j10cibn wrote

If Ukraine had atacms in the border with belarus there would be need to splitt nothing. When the trops concentrate in the north you just blow them.

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fffyhhiurfgghh t1_j12pfdv wrote

So Russia has already failed in this exact strategy during the early war. Why would this same strategy work again?

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