Kakrime t1_j10aag9 wrote
Beware of the wishfull thinking. The fact that belarus is shit, or that people there could revel, or that russia could be weak and not able to atack from belarus could be true, but right now it is wishfull thinking. The only safe behavior in this situaion is to arm Ukraine wih atacms and heavy weapons as soon as possible and prepare for an attack from belarus, even if many people or experts consider it low chance. We cannot afford fail in here and have to be prepared for the worst esceranio. Even if in the end belraus doenst attack, the situation if there is an attack would be serious enough as to consider some kind of comments laughting at this posibility as russian trolls.
ChemistryVirtual t1_j10c568 wrote
This is exactly what Russia wants, splitting the Ukrainian defences among the southern conflict and creating a new one in the north weakening the defences in the south so to continue plundering along the Black Sea on to Transnistria.
jackp0t789 t1_j10cl6q wrote
If they wanted to push towards Transnistria, they wouldn't have retreated from their one bridgehead on the west bank of the Dnieper.
Kakrime t1_j10cv5q wrote
If they atack from belarus probably they would go to towards Lutks Rivne etc
jackp0t789 t1_j10d2ac wrote
They can barely move a few hundred meters a day in Donbass...
unless Ukraine leaves that entire strip entirely undefended, they aren't going to do much better up there.
Kakrime t1_j10fwk5 wrote
Right now, no. In some months who knows
ttkciar t1_j10xsqy wrote
Is there much choice?
If S-400 is positioned on Ukraine's Belarus border, on Ukraine's Russian border, and in Crimea, then between their overlapping areas of coverage there will be nowhere in all of Ukraine where anything can fly that cannot be immediately shot down (except maybe F-35; it might be sufficiently stealthed to avoid detection by S-400, but the Ukrainians don't have that aircraft).
To avoid that situation, the S-400 emplacements would have to be neutralized.
ttkciar t1_j10znhn wrote
Relatedly, this prompted me to look up ground-to-ground anti-radiation missile systems, and afaict the only such systems that exist are China's B-611MR and Israel's Keres (a ground launching system for AGM-78).
That seems like a pretty grievous oversight. Without a ground-to-ground anti-radiation capability, what are a military's options for attacking S-400 other than overrunning it with tanks or getting close enough with a sufficiently well-stealthed aircraft to launch air-to-ground anti-radiation missiles?
Incandescent_Lass t1_j11bhls wrote
Waste a bunch of cheap drones until you get your lock, then pop open the expensive bottles.
Kakrime t1_j10cibn wrote
If Ukraine had atacms in the border with belarus there would be need to splitt nothing. When the trops concentrate in the north you just blow them.
fffyhhiurfgghh t1_j12pfdv wrote
So Russia has already failed in this exact strategy during the early war. Why would this same strategy work again?
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