Yes they ate already running out of ammo, keep it up you fuks!

I don't think Russia can easily run out of ammo either, but it can run out of soldiers if the war continues for a long time. What's the latest count on Russian casualties? Well over 100K? Who in their right mind would voluntarily want to fight for Russia?

they most likely got tons from USSR-era, and iran, NK or even china and india can supply.

> No, I do not have such detailed information about as we are well aware, Russia is using the ammunition in line with the old standards: 152mm and 122mm ammunition, so it may be able to restore it or it may be receiving it from North Korea. We should also count ammunition from Belarus, from which Russia has taken more than 20,000 tons of ammunition. We don’t know how large stocks are in Belarus, but by transferring its armored equipment and ammunition to Russia, Belarus remains a major resource.

So his skepticism is based on the fact that Belarus and North Korea could also be supplying them? Well that’s something.

Lockheed Martin loving putins bad decisions

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 93%. (I'm a bot)

> WASHINGTON The defense minister of Baltic ally Lithuania voiced skepticism over the recent Pentagon assessment that Russia, after months of fighting Ukraine and slapped with western sanctions, would deplete its fully-serviceable ammunition stockpiles by early 2023.

> Arvydas Anušauskas, following visits with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other U.S. officials here, said in an interview that any appraisals of Russia's weapons stockpiles ought to also factor in Lithuania's Russian-allied neighbor Belarus, which sent Russia more than 20,000 tons of ammunition earlier this year.

> How does Lithuania regard a new entrant into the defense market like South Korea, which also makes self-propelled howitzers, and is known for marketing itself pretty aggressively?

Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Lithuania^#1 defense^#2 Ukraine^#3 Russia^#4 capability^#5

In situations like this, always better to over-estimate what they have and plan for them at their most powerful and then some. They keep threatening to use nukes and I do think if Putin gets desperate enough, he would use them.

Nobody. That's why police execute the conscription orders.

I feel like the "Russia is going to run out of ammo" is all spin from media headlines. I don't think any of the military leaders/analysts of the world have said Russia will run out of ammo on any level outside of their more sophisticated stuff that require western tech. It's a big deal still but I feel like I see a lot of headlines trying to spin it as if Russia won't be able to keep firing shit at Ukraine for much longer and that probably isn't true.

I've seen videos of conscripts trying to run away - it's hilarious and sad at the same time. Can you imagine being forced to have to fight and die for your country, a country that is not worth fighting for. I mean, Russia could be a great country, but its governance for centuries has been abysmal.

It is doubtful that will happen either. Russia is massive and we forget how many soldiers they threw into WW2.

The numbers are there but the unknown is what happens if they try to mobilize the men in Moscow, St. P, etc. The propaganda is strong and Russia has a massive police force.

Yeah only the guys on the front line run out, they will never send it all to them.

Director of National Intelligence (USA) was the one saying that Russia is running out.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna59847

It's not so much a problem of the ammunition its the artillery barrels not being re bored or serviced. The propellant charge and the weight of the projectile are variable. Shooting a lot of heavy projos with full charges will cause considerably more wear. A higher rate of fire accelerates wear, too. As a rule of thumb, though, it's usually around 2000–3000 shots. The effect on the gun is inevitable.

Russia is running out of ammunition was a logistic issue due to overextension and lack of preparation in push model of Russian army. News reporters run with the first part without understanding.

I can imagine Russia severely depleting their missile and drones, but it would be insane to run out of shells.

Yeah but he also says tied to that they already have found external aid and will continue to look for it to help keep up with their military output. He doesn't say they are going to run out of stuff to shoot at Ukraine anytime soon. This is just another example of what I said in my comment, where the headlines make it seem much worse than it is.

No one knowledgeable is saying they will run out in the sense they have to stop fighting because they have no ammo.

Some people are saying they will become constrained in terms of what they can do, when and at what scale because they will become more reliant on new production and less able to draw down from preexisting stocks.

Never said they are “running out.” She said they are not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending. That says nothing about how much they may have stockpiled (because we can’t know for sure) or how much they are capable of getting from other allied nations.

You could say the same thing about the ukraine, but they have a steady stream of western support to keep their ammo flowing. No one is running out anytime soon.

If all they have is artillery it really limits what targets they can hit. Their long range method is now iranian drones. If they can only shell the border, it isn't that useful. Ukraine can also re-establish air superiority then enemy arty's become an easy target.

So how do suppose Russia will try to hit Kyiv hospitals?

>What's the latest count on Russian casualties? Well over 100K?

Isn't that number coming from Ukraine? Probably not the best source for judging actual casualties.

They may be running low compared to pre-conflict stockpile levels, and they totally could be scouring countries like NK and Belarus for ammunition; but to pretend they aren’t capable of pumping out more is foolish.

Russia has a large defense industry, they have been selling (and giving) weapons to other countries for decades.

Unless the munitions factories themselves are hit, waiting for Russia to run out of ammo is foolish.

> If they can only shell the border, it isn't that useful

This is really way to simple. Targeted long range munitions are important, but if you have enough shells to fire off you will eventually hit something of value. During WW1 they fired off like a billion shells in the first year alone and I'm sure you've seen the pictures of what the western front looked like during WW1. Russia may not be able to strike Kyiv accurately for much longer but they can still strike areas of logistical importance and make it hard for Ukraine to reinforce their troops.

Attacking the Ukrainian cities deep in Ukraine were mostly for morale purposes. These were operations to continue to try and get people living in Ukraine to leave. Regular less accurate artillery has been vital to the Russians ability to strike Ukrainian front line positions since the beginning of the war.

Arty can easily be taken out by drones. This is why Ukraine is buying drones and gaining air superiority.

You can't fight WW1 style against a military with tech, it just won't last.

>Arty can easily be taken out by drones

And it can be reproduced as quickly as it's taken out. Also drones themselves can be targeted by artillery or other drones which Russia has.

As it is now Russia appears to have everything they need to drag out this conflict as long as possible. They are very skilled at creating unending conflict.

Looks like my first game of hoi

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Logistics will definitely be more of a problem, although probably not "run out". The Russian bodies will not run out of either. It's completely normal for a medieval army to send in the inexperienced troops first to wear down the enemy.

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Exactly.

Exactly right. You need something to shoot the rounds out of. The M777s sent to Ukraine have already been through the wringer and a lot of them are going out of action. What could be said of the old rusty unmaintained Soviet guns?

As a side note...NATO (reserve) tanks get about 10 hours of maintenance every month for each and every vehicle. There's 100's of different mechanical mechanisms (weapons loading actions, main gun elevation, ammo movement trollies, turret gears, engines, transmissions, suspension on each wheel, and the pivots on each track link) that need to be properly lubed and kept free of rust and moisture. Then there's the hydraulic systems that can sit without seals corroding and the fluids collecting moisture. Then you get to the electronics, the batteries, the generators etc.. The Russians haven't needed more than a few planes or tanks at any one time since Afghanistan in the 80s. Nowhere near the NATO schedule. Same goes for Missiles, ICBM's, AA, helios, Howizers, Training, etc. Americans aren't going without free health care for nothing!

It might mean their own stock of certain ammo is gone, we already knew their production couldn't keep up with the speed they were using it at. Now they are using ammo they are importing. Question is if their production can keep up with the speed. Belarus most likely won't, North Korea's is said to have a high failure rate.

This is good news, just not great news.

Keep in mind “casualties” included wounded, not just dead, at a roughly 10:1 ratio. Many of those wounded may later return to the fight.

Usually 3:1 is used for estimating casualties, but I've seen some analysts suggest 2:1 is more accurate with the inadequate medical care. Our casualty numbers are largely extrapolations based on counting dead russians and applying that ratio. If the 2:1 ratio is to be believed, we are grossly overestimating the number of surviving casualties.

Hell, considering they disarmed nuke rockets/missiles to use them as conventional weapons it's clear the supplies are strained.

They will keep fighting as Russian history has shown that a lack of supply won't stop me. But their combat capability will be significantly lowered to a point that might as well stop.

No, Russia has suicide drones, artillery isn't anti-air and drones are smaller targets. Russia definitely cannot refine steel and reproduce artillery cannons "as quickly as they are taken out". Russia is complete ass in logistics alone. This is why their front line fighters do not have enough small arms or ammo.

As it is now, I'm coming to the conclusion you're trying to use propaganda, or you're just talking out your ass trying to disprove me because you don't like being wrong.

The fact that this appears to be the Russian's strategy is dumbfounding, since it is exactly what NATO would want Russia to do.

That is, to drag out the war for so long that Russia depletes its ENTIRE advanced arsenal, and for so long that hundreds of thousands of young Russians will die in the process, which will permanently weaken Russia from a demographic point of view.

The only logical conclusion for why Russia is currently doing what it is doing is that continuing down this path is in Vladimir Putin's personal interest, but with the probable end-game in sight, I fail to see how the status quo of dragging out the war is really that advantageous to him personally.

So more likely, the current strategy that Russia is pursuing is probably what Vladimir Putin thinks is in it own best interests based on the incorrect information he is being fed about the situation on the ground.

I believe more neutral analysts have estimated the number to be at least 80.000, so it's probably not too far off.

"It would be insane to run out of shells."

Russia: Hold my vodka...

You do have a good point there...

American health care has no connection to military spending at all. They spend more on health care than Europeans do.

I don't think Russia will run out of the basic stuff.

There is a good chance the my could run out of the really powerful stuff though.

Running out of ammo can mean a number of things:

-Lacking physical shells in inventory ("we've run out")

-Consuming shells much faster than they can be replaced ("we're running out")

-Lacking shells in the correct places to service the targets requested ("we're running out of shells here")

The latter is very likely given HIMARS related "smoking accidents" in Russian ammo stores that are too close to the front lines, or are large enough to be worth a GMLRS rocket or two. Small, distributed stores further from the front are more protected, but less efficient in delivering shells into tubes.

"Usage faster than production" is almost inevitable for any weapon system in high intensity wartime unless there is a heavy shift to a war economy. The question isn't whether country X will run out of weapons system Y, it's when will they. Usage and destruction factor into this too. The pressing issue here also becomes which type of weapon system is depleted first, for example 152mm Krasnopol is much more capable than a dumb 152mm.

India is highly dependent on Russian arms exports and cannot in turn supply Russia

😅👍

Would Russian soldiers in Belarus be a legitimate target if the roles of Ukraine and Russia were reversed?......if yes....then the second they cross more lines attack, surgically.

The trick is to go on the defensive for about a campaign season. Maybe more depending on how deep in the hole you are. Give your factories time to catch up.

Last time I sent you boys ammo, you made us run out.

I remember way back when they ran out of guns. Didn't stop them then.

Yeah and that only because the middleman insurance companies needs their cut

They don’t have everything though, Russia might have more but Ukraine has longer arms that hit their supply dumps that really constrain Russias ability to maintain those lines and continue lobbing those shells towards Ukraine. This has been Russias biggest problem ever since Ukraine got their hands on HIMARS, they haven’t been able to have reliable supply lines, ammo dumps or consistent positioning.

No, the Lithuanian defense minister is doubtful or skeptical that Russia will run out of ammo. If he were leery that Russia will run out of ammo, he would think that they will, and he would be worried or concerned about that prospect.

*insert montage of HIMARS strikes on depots*

They have a standing army of well over 1 million. But to send them to ukraine would mean weakening their borders somewhere. And they are too afraid that some countries like Finland. Japan. China etc. Would reclaim land from them. So they are essentially locked down in these areas.

Why did you call it "the" Ukraine?

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There's no reason to think Russia can't manufacture dumb munitions indefinitely. There might be a question on capacity, but as Russia is obviously able to mobilize their whole economy for the war (unlike the West), it's only a question of time.