di11deux t1_iuil50d wrote on October 31, 2022 at 4:35 PM

Reply to comment by Workister in Lithuania is readying itself to retaliate with full force to any potential Russian attack | World News by Sofie-Forsberggg

I understand what you're saying, but I have to respectfully disagree.

Ukraine 2014 was/is much different than a NATO state. At that time, there was no Western/NATO commitment to their defense, the US was still deeply involved in Afghanistan, and Ukraine's military was incredibly disorganized. Speaking personally, I never thought a full-on invasion in 2014 or 2022 was ever out of the question, as there remained the possibility that Russia could achieve its objectives quickly and (relatively) easily.

Comparing Ukraine 2014 to Lithuania 2022, or any NATO state for that matter. is completely different. We're talking about a Russian military hemorrhaging men and material against a smaller neighbor with a patchwork of NATO equipment. I feel very confident in saying that there's zero chance Russia will invade Lithuania because there's zero chance Russia can even pull together the BTG's necessary to hold a public bathroom in a separate theater, let alone mount an invasion. You're also looking at a fully-integrated NATO military that will without question invite a full NATO response. Russia would need a force of at least 150,000 to seriously threaten any of their neighbors, and they simply don't have that force to spare.

Now, are there caveats that could change this calculus? Sure - if you're talking about a 10 or 20 year time horizon, I can't say there's zero chance anymore. I also would expect Russia to employ non-traditional methods to try and fuck around. But, if we're thinking about the next 2-3 years, I feel very confident in saying the chances of a Russian invasion into a NATO state is zero.

Workister t1_iuiqiku wrote on October 31, 2022 at 5:11 PM

This article is about Lithuania taking steps to ready it's defensive posture against Russian invasion.

You seem to be implying that this is unnecessary because there is a zero chance of Russia invading Lithuania.

You say the zero chance stems from Russia looking at NATO's response.

This is Lithuania both readying that response, and advertising it.

If Lithuania treated it like a zero chance, it wouldn't be a zero chance.

They are treating it like a likelihood, and therefore, the chance decreases.

As the article correctly points out, Lithuania is Russia's gateway to Kaliningrad. That provides political cover (however vellus) for Russia to try something.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, and especially since 2004, Russian media has been running a constant narrative about how two faced the Baltic states are - how Russia saved them from Hitler, rebuilt them after WWII, poured in tons of wealth that could've been used in the Russian Soviet Republic, only to have them say "thank you" by turning their backs on them.

There has been an intensive propaganda campaign,spanning decades, against the Baltic states. Even Russians who might question a "special operation" in Ukraine would "understand" the necessity for escalation in the Baltics.

Also, Putin tends to be stronger when Russia is losing, because he plays off Russian fears of the the outside world to position himself as Russia's savior. Contrary to popular belief, he is a rational actor, and every defeat Russia experiences on the battlefield is a personal victory for his hold on power. Of course there's a limit to that, but no one knows exactly where that limit is, and that makes this whole situation incredibly dangerous, and we need to take all potential threats very seriously.