kenlasalle t1_je7ausk wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Melting Antarctic ice predicted to cause rapid slowdown of deep ocean current by 2050 by wordswontcomeout
Absolutely well before. I wouldn't be surprised if it was changed to 2030.
Climate change has always exceeded both time and severity estimates. That must has been consistent.
[deleted] t1_je7iqdq wrote
[removed]
kenlasalle t1_je7o5vx wrote
I didn't say it's worse than the IPCC says. I was referring to history, the past 50 years. Put down your knee jerk and listen.
mtandy t1_je87ga7 wrote
>In a study accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a research team led by Zeke Hausfather of the University of California, Berkeley, conducted a systematic evaluation of the performance of past climate models. The team compared 17 increasingly sophisticated model projections of global average temperature developed between 1970 and 2007, including some originally developed by NASA, with actual changes in global temperature observed through the end of 2017. The observational temperature data came from multiple sources, including NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) time series, an estimate of global surface temperature change.
>The results: 10 of the model projections closely matched observations. Moreover, after accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other factors that drive climate, the number increased to 14. The authors found no evidence that the climate models evaluated either systematically overestimated or underestimated warming over the period of their projections.
> Put down your knee jerk and listen.
[deleted] t1_je7e0cv wrote
I think the Roland Emmerech movie The Day After Tomorrow had this as a plot line?
agrk t1_je8n4ye wrote
Wrong ocean current and a somewhat unrealistic scenario, but yes, it has.
In the real world, the North-Atlantic current has been struggling for almost a decade now. The adjoining Gulf stream almost stopped completely for a while during that BP oil spill, and the system has been wonky since.
Luckily, there's no current risk of people being deep frozen within minutes. Lots of snow and warm winters are coming though.
[deleted] t1_je9ruq9 wrote
Wow, did not know that about the BP spill, how was that able to happen?
agrk t1_jebej4i wrote
I won't claim I understand the details, but there were quite a few reports of disruptions of the Gulf Stream during the months after the incident. Mind you, temporary disruptions happen everey now and then -- the main issues if they were permanent would be the effects of the weather and the underwater ecosystem in the North Atlantic.
[deleted] t1_jebvj8t wrote
Hmmmm, I just did not know oil spills could do this. Unless it was just becasue the oil spill was so historically huge.
agrk t1_jedgidz wrote
It was huge. It also contained lots of methane, they sprayed chemicals all over the Mexican gulf to contain the spill, an explosion, a sunken oil rig, etc. As mentioned, I remember it from the news back then and don't really have a clue about the details. :D
Regardless, the point was that currents can change without Jake Gyllenhall having to chase antibiotics on a derelict frozen tanker in NYC.
The changes will mostly destabilize the weather, and prevent heat from being transferred from A to B. And long those long-term weather effects are scarier than Hollywood blockbusters.
kingofpotatopeople92 t1_je7tvtc wrote
2027...But most of you won't be around to care.
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