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callipygiancultist t1_ja7hfqn wrote

Reply to comment by dogeimistic in Anti-war partisans in Belarus claim to have damaged Russian plane | Belarus by Caratteraccio

Lukashenko is afraid of domestic protests if he does that

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Lee1138 t1_ja7mhn4 wrote

Especially now that the Russian army seems quite occupied elsewhere.

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nonlawyer t1_ja7xqu5 wrote

Not just protests. The Belarus Army is far worse equipped and less experienced than the Russian army was at the start of the war.

The better equipped and more loyal / trustworthy troops are what keeps Luka in power. Can’t afford to lose them.

The less well-equipped troops are of dubious loyalty and motivation and might even defect. Can’t afford to risk that happening.

What they can do is periodically move troops around and make blustery noises and force Ukraine to keep some troops in the North just in case. That’s basically free. So they keep doing that.

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DrNick1221 t1_ja8i97p wrote

> What they can do is periodically move troops around and make blustery noises and force Ukraine to keep some troops in the North just in case. That’s basically free. So they keep doing that.

Oh, believe me, the Ukrainian border guards in the north and making their thoughts on the bluster very well known.

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korovko t1_ja86ljq wrote

Yeah, my gut feeling is that even if there is some planted or real evidence that those were Ukrainians who did it, Lukashenko would cling to the idea it was something that Belarus partisans did. He's as evil as Putin, but without any imperialistic ambitions.

He definitely doesn't want war. Too much risk personally for him without obvious material or 'spiritual' (can't find a better word) benefits.

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Turmfalke_ t1_ja8g50b wrote

> He's as evil as Putin, but without any imperialistic ambitions.

Oh he definitely has those, he just wants to be the one top and is going to do everything he can to not help Putin. He is probably more thinking about how he can take over Russia when Putin is gone.

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truthdemon t1_ja8u9z3 wrote

Because there's even less appetite among the Belorussian public for getting involved in the war than there is in the urban centres of Russia.

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