Zurograx3991 t1_j9w6322 wrote on February 25, 2023 at 12:06 AM

Reply to comment by mistervanilla in Ukraine war: Zelensky keen to meet Xi following China's peace plan by alex-98

You seem super convinced that China will send arms to Russia, to what end does that benefit China?

[deleted] t1_j9whuja wrote on February 25, 2023 at 1:34 AM

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mistervanilla t1_j9w7s68 wrote on February 25, 2023 at 12:18 AM

I'm not fully convinced that they will, but the American intelligence has been on point this conflict and they are reporting that the Chinese are seriously considering it, so I think we have to take it as a very real possibility. We additionally have seen the Chinese send their top diplomat to Moscow during the 1 year anniversary of the war, come out with a peace plan that favours Russia (as it would draw a cease fire around current battle lines) and Xi is slated to visit Moscow for a meeting with Putin soon. So clearly, they seem to become more involved - to what degree remains to be seen.

As for reasons, China is currently experiencing a period of escalating tensions with the US. The spy balloon is a prime example, but probably the US cutting off China's access to high grade computer chips is a much larger factor. It may be that China seeks to retaliate by undermining US interests in other places. Another factor will be that Russia will have been asking for more support for a long time, and it China might find it hard to continue to refuse while simultaneously touting their "boundless friendship". Lastly, a long and distracting war in Europe can be in China's favour (as long as it does not escalate) as it will drain resources from their strategic adversaries. Just as it is in the interest of the US/EU to arm Ukraine and thereby harm Russia, China could see it in their interest to arm Russia and harm the EU/US.

Again, currently the leaked and unverified claims of the lethal aid they are reported to be willing to provide are quite paltry for a country the size of China. So to me it seems more like a shot across the bow to the US and a placating gesture to the Russians. But under the right (or wrong, rather) circumstances this could escalate further. The last thing you want is further entrenchment on this issue between China and the EU/US, and while that currently is in neither blocs interest - situation with high tensions can be unpredictable.

For this reason again Zelensky's move to try and engage the Chinese is a good one.

waisonline99 t1_j9welin wrote on February 25, 2023 at 1:09 AM

I almost thought you were talking sense until you revealed that youre talking out of your arse by saying Chinas peace plan favours Russia.

Have you even seen it?

The very first point is the sovereignty of all countries must be respected. And since no-one has invaded Russia, that means Russia needs to get out of Ukraine.

All but one of the points favours Ukraine, and the one for Russia is a tacked on placation point about sanctions because they have to include Russia somehow.

You use a lot of words, but youre just another anti-chinese hate monger.

Chinas plan wont work though because it relies on Russia backing down.

mistervanilla t1_j9y7u7r wrote on February 25, 2023 at 12:55 PM

> The very first point is the sovereignty of all countries must be respected. And since no-one has invaded Russia, that means Russia needs to get out of Ukraine.

No, it doesn't. That's your interpretation and is exactly why in international relations statements are kept vague and ambiguous. Everybody agrees that sovereignty must be respected, but precisely the question of sovereignty is what Ukraine and Russia are fighting over. Ukraine claims they are a sovereign nation independent from Russia, Russia claims that (part of) Ukraine falls within the sovereignty of Russia. Hence, it is not at all clear that Russia needs to get out of Ukraine as part of this statement. Russia has performed mock-referenda in the occupied parts of Ukraine precisely to give legitimacy to their claim of sovereignty.

If the peace plan entailed that Russia would retreat, it would say so specifically, using language referring to mutually established borders at a certain date. Otherwise, the statement has no value. The Chinese peace plan essentially says: "Stop fighting now" which would freeze the borders at the current line of conflict, which would be hugely beneficial for the Putin regime. They get to keep Crimea, Mariupol and most of the southern coastline of Ukraine. He can sell that back home as a win. Especially as we see that it's gearing up to be Ukraine's turn to go on the offensive this spring. So any freezing of the lines of conflict, currently massively favours Russia.

> You use a lot of words, but youre just another anti-chinese hate monger.

Not sure what you want. I have given facts, not opinion - on the Chinese actions. They did send their top diplomat to Putin during the 1 year anniversary, there is credible intelligence that they are gearing up to deliver lethal aid, they do have a meeting between Xi and Putin planned shortly to discuss/announce further cooperation, they absolutely have softened the blow of economic sanctions by buying more fossil fuels from Russia.

Fact is, China does not need a 12 point peace plan. They could end the war tomorrow by joining the economic sanctions on Russia. Without China, Russia cannot stay afloat under the current conditions. China simply does what is in their interest, nothing more, nothing less. And right now it is in their interest that Russia ends the Ukrainian conflict on favorable terms to them, which we see reflected in the peace plan.