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sudocitrus t1_ja12npr wrote

Generally curious, how effective will these sanctions be at this time? I mean, given all those measures imposed on Russia at the start of the war, Putin is still determined to take Ukraine. How much will this change in the current situation?

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Dikai t1_ja13g57 wrote

Someone else explained this really well in comments in another post. I believe they said something like 'They keep updating sanctions over time to maximize impact, basically after a while when Russia gets uhm what's the right word 'comfortable?' with certain sanctions they will add new ones on other important things to impact as much damage as possible to their economy.' Basically the idea is dealing much more damage over a long period of time than can be done at once.

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Ludwigofthepotatoppl t1_ja1gc95 wrote

Best way i can explain it is death by a thousand cuts. You sanction them a little, they find a way to work around it—then you sanction them a bit more, so they have to work around it again. Do this a lot, and they lose so much time and effort having to work around them. Economy’s shitty, people are tired and things look uncertain, it’s terrible for public morale.

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Shurqeh t1_ja2fbro wrote

Have they closed the Turkish loophole yet?

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StoneRivet t1_ja23dv2 wrote

What u/dikai was getting at was this

Imagine your country relies on products A, B, C, D, etc...

If you sanction A, well now the country needs to switch to B to keep things going smoothly. After a while, when your country has swapped over to B completely, you sanction B. Now that hurts more, and your country needs to scramble harder to fix that problem, so they switch to C, etc...

This is not a perfect analogy, but it explains one of the reasons that sanctions applied over time can hurt more than all the sanctions applied at once.

Also another reason for escalating sanctions as opposed to dropped every sanction known to man at once is to keep some leverage. If you sanction the shit out of Russia with everything all at once, well there is not reason for Russia to listen to you at all since you threw everything at it. But if you do it over time, it leaves you with negotiating power. Even if Putin does not care, many oligarchs may get increasingly nervous with increasing sanctions that hurt them more and more, and that will cause instability.

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JeanValJohnFranco t1_ja1krre wrote

Might matter a bit on the margins, but probably won’t make a huge difference. Seems like the expert consensus is that the overall sanctions regime has been a bit of a dud. Russia’s economy definitely took a hit from the sanctions at the start of the war but the Russian economy appears to have stabilized, albeit in a worse place than they were pre-invasion. Seems like the combination of gray markets allowing the import/export of goods through other nations and the ability to continue selling oil, gas, and other natural resources to China and India has kept Russia afloat and there’s not much we can do about it barring cooperation from those countries or a dramatic overhaul of the overall economic sanctions model the west relies on.

To be clear, I think a lot of European countries did the right thing and made major sacrifices to put this sanctions regime into place and they are having some bite. It’s just a bummer they aren’t having their full intended effect largely because nominal allies of ours like India are profiting off this situation for their own economic gain.

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CountVonTroll t1_ja278d0 wrote

> Might matter a bit on the margins, but probably won’t make a huge difference. Seems like the expert consensus is that the overall sanctions regime has been a bit of a dud.

Incidentally, I happen to still have an interview about this open in another tab, with the professor whose group maintains Yale's well known list of companies that are still doing business in Russia or have pulled out.

The IMF and Worldbank figures for Russian GDP and their forecast make it look as if the sanctions weren't having much of an effect. However, these figures are based on the data that Russia/Rosstat, as a member of those institutions, gives them. Since after the sanctions had been introduced, Rosstat has stopped submission of the normally required detailed data. So IMF and Worldbank can't run their own numbers, and have no choice but to rely on whatever Rosstat (read: Putin) tells them it's going to be.

The point is, we don't have the data to know how Russia's economy is actually holding up. Only indirect and anecdotal evidence suggesting the sanctions do work on the one hand, and on the other, we have Putin's word that the Russian economy is doing just fine.

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throwaway_nrTWOOO t1_ja42zzt wrote

Iirc the Yale study based its estimates on some sort of financial metadata and smaller revenue indicators that painted a very dire picture. I couldn't explain it though, I just have a vague recollection of it being based on actual empirical evidennce.

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StoneRivet t1_ja23ji3 wrote

Fair points. Idk how much it matters in the grand scheme of things but I have followed the Ruble over the last year. Since 8 months ago, its been dropping, and it hasn't stopped. It just reached it's pre-war level and it is still going down. So sanctions are hurting Russia, I wish it would be a faster effect to force Putin to stop the war, but it is hurting Russia.

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RangerHere t1_ja1ws9a wrote

I dont know why you are getting down votes.

We used to sell things to Russia. Now we sell to China, then they sell to Russia.

We used to buy from Russia. Now they sell to India, then we buy from India.

Over all, they took a hit. But it is just an inconveniences at this point.

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Haterbait_band t1_ja58mme wrote

Hey, don’t forget the benefit of having our world leaders signal virtues! They’ll get re-elected for sure! And all without actually having to do anything that would have realistically prevented a full year of needless deaths.

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MaverickGTI t1_ja2npo6 wrote

It's just advancing the development of China russia relations, thus creating a large competitive power bloc. More bad policies from people who don't know what they are doing.

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