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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3j7k2 wrote

Reply to comment by Loki-Don in Chief: DC Police Staffing at Its Lowest in Decades by thinkcontext

Huh? I’m sorry you can’t do data analysis? Numbers are all there.

DC also has a much higher base line policing requirement due to staffing protests and protecting soft targets. So the comparison of police officers to other U.S. cities is just sort of sadly ignorant of the underlying arguments here.

More cops = less murders. Sorry that makes you upset.

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Loki-Don t1_ja3jrlj wrote

Link your data.

Also, what’s your excuse for both significantly more cops, significantly lower population and 2X the number of murders through the 1990s?

That can’t be explained if more cops = less murder.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3l4yw wrote

You just said the data doesn’t show a correlation — soo don’t you have the data in front of you?

More cops = less crime in the long-run compared to baseline existing crime rate (caused by external social factors). The 90s were the height of the crack epidemic, the baseline crime rate was far higher — and over time, the police were able to bring the crime rate down.

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Loki-Don t1_ja40hbu wrote

I have my data from MPDs website. You are the one making the outlandish claims that aren’t supported by DC or any other cities data (more cops = less murder” so you must have some other source of data. Link it here.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja46ay7 wrote

Great then you can clearly see that murders nearly double from 2013-2022 while the number of MPD officers declined by 20%~ during that same period.

So where’s the controversy here? The numbers speak for themselves.

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Loki-Don t1_ja4gdvt wrote

Lol…you aren’t equipped for this.

Peak DC cop numbers were 1999. It’s been slowly declining since.

Yet murders steadily declined for the next 13 years despite MPD losing hundreds of cops.

Less cops yet fewer murders for 13 years. Explain.

Then 2015-2019, the number of murders stayed statistically static, despite MPD losing hundreds more. Explain.

Your argument is juvenile and o Lu works if you exclude decades of data precovid and data showing the murder rate increase in DC for that 2 year Covid period was mirrored exactly across the cities in the rest of the nation. It was a national trend, not a local anomaly.

Back to the kids table son, the adults are speaking.

1985 147 1986 194 1987 225 1988 369 1989 434 1990 472 1991 482 1992 443 1993 454 1994 399 1995 360 1996 397 1997 301 1998 260 1999 241 2000 239 2001 241 2002 264 2003 249 2004 198 2005 195 2006 169 2007 181 2008 186 2009 145 2010 132 2011 108 2012 88 2013 103 2014 105 2015 162 2016 136 2017 116 2018 160 2019 166 2020 198 2021 226 2022 203

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja4htra wrote

“Then 2015-2019, the number of murders stayed statistically static” — LOL, do a three year rolling average please. You’ll see exactly what I’m describing, murders go up while the number of cops go down.

Also I’m going to assume the “actually murders went down after the crack epidemic of the 90s subsided” argument is trolling so I won’t bother to address it (for your sake I hope you’re not actually making this argument).

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Loki-Don t1_ja4ojkl wrote

Dude, you can’t dismiss 16 years of both declining cop counts and murders because “muh, crack in the 1990s”, yet then think 2 years during Covid when murders were increasing nationally( and is now declining) is “finally” indicative of DCs declining cop counts showing up in the murder rate?

You can’t possibly be that daft. Or you must be a cop, and not a bright one at that.

Cheers mate, go on believing DC isn’t the most policied city in America.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja5uhw4 wrote

Again, if you take a rolling three-year average of murder rates for each year from 2013-2022, they consistently increase over the last decade, mirroring the decline in employed police officers. Are you able to understand what I’m saying?* We are talking numbers here so there’s not really room for interpretation.

*So the rolling murder rate in 2013 would be the average from 2011-2013, for 2014 it would be the average of 2012-2014, etc. This helps flatten the otherwise moderately noisy year-over-year data to generate longer term trend lines.

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