BrightThru2014 t1_ja1qluz wrote on February 26, 2023 at 4:42 AM

Reply to comment by Brickleberried in Chief: DC Police Staffing at Its Lowest in Decades by thinkcontext

Murders have trended up since 2012 what are you talking about?

Brickleberried t1_ja1sjjt wrote on February 26, 2023 at 5:01 AM

Starting a trend at the minimum isn't really how you do trends if it's pretty flat around that minimum.

There's a clear shift of trends between 2008 and 2009 where it dropped 22% in one year. There was one outlier year in 2015. Then in 2018, it started shooting up again.

Between 2009 and 2017, there wasn't a whole lot of variation except for 2015.

BrightThru2014 t1_ja2ri1g wrote on February 26, 2023 at 12:17 PM

Okay you initially said murders started going up again in 2020, now you say 2018. So now do you acknowledge there’s a correlation with the number of officers employed?

Brickleberried t1_ja3i36d wrote on February 26, 2023 at 4:01 PM

I don't acknowledge that at all since you haven't proven it. Try posting number of murders per year with number officers per year if you want to show a correlation.

BrightThru2014 t1_ja3isw5 wrote on February 26, 2023 at 4:06 PM

Numbers are all there. If you’re too lazy to look them up that’s on you.

More cops = less murders. Sorry that makes you upset.

Brickleberried t1_ja3joxg wrote on February 26, 2023 at 4:12 PM

So you can't prove your claim.

Got it.

BrightThru2014 t1_ja3kltl wrote on February 26, 2023 at 4:18 PM

I’m not sure what numbers you’re looking for here? From 2013-2022 murders nearly doubled and the number of police officers decreased by 15-20%. What part of this needs further analysis?

Brickleberried t1_ja6c6wy wrote on February 27, 2023 at 4:06 AM

Show me the year-by-year data. You can't just compare the beginning and ends of time periods to show a trend. Come on, it's basic statistics.

BrightThru2014 t1_ja6cvqg wrote on February 27, 2023 at 4:12 AM

Feel free to use a three-year rolling average for that period. You’ll find the same trend.