Submitted by MogamboKushhua468 t3_10p6kxy in wallstreetbets
ECB is going to do 50 Basis Point
Inflation is not coming down
All business numbers are doing great
FED officials talked about 25 basis point, they will go further hard as job market is good at present and they can control further, later they may not get this opportunity.
Party pooper JPOW is coming friends....thoughts
What about their first 75bp hike? bond markets expected 50 until suddenly a few days before a new york post monkey that's known for getting inside info from the fed talked about 75bp and got that rapidly baked in over 3 days involvimg massive gaps down on the indexes. No way that counts as having been expected.
You left out the disastrous CPI report that came out the week before the Fed meeting which turned the prospects of a 75bps hike into a real possibility, and sparked the change in expectations and the gap downs in the equity markets.
This time the same reporter has been signaling 25
Nick Timiraos's twitter is where this information comes out, I don't disagree that it is likely to be 25bp but I see a lot of signs that we should be expecting 50bp. He's tweeting about Brainard's recent speeches and about how inflation hasn't proven itself to have stabilized.
Previously he outright stated 25, I'm taking those statements as justification for continuing on that path. At this point if they were considering 50 I think you'd see him state "50 is a real possibility". The Fed really dislikes surprising the markets.
oh hey man!
It counts considering that the fed mentioned hiking by 75bps because of the recent cpi report
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There was the 1994 surprise hike.
Went into work at GS a few weeks later and the entire money markets department was gone. Guess they didn't expect it.
Longer than 22 years ago so doesn't count
They can still tell the WSJ tomorrow that they are going 50bp
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>That's all well and good, but the fact remains that I'm richer and smarter than you'll ever be. So why don't you just shut your pie hole and accept your inferiority?
You cannot be richer/smarter than me, you are still working and at age of 40 I am retired.
>That's all well and good, but the fact remains that I'm richer and smarter than you'll ever be. So why don't you just shut your pie hole and accept your inferiority?
tbf, mod is an AI. Never needs to eat, pay bills, etc.. Maybe he IS superior...
He is constantly fed with our bad ideas, his life is hell
True. At least I can watch PH now and then. Not even VisualMod can do that
TIL the mod is Joey Bosa
Do you have balls mod?
‘Attaboy.
You understand that inflation going down doesn't mean prices are coming down, right? I suspect you think inflation=price.
Nobody understands anything anymore. Everyone just knows they are poorer than last year, yet the stock market is going up and the one percent just bought new yachts.
See, that’s why I dump all my money into the stock market, so my money can go up too. Maybe I can retire one year before I die.
I plan on dying with my face on top of a keyboard like any true American!
Speak for yourself (I’m only the 5% though lmao)
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….if you hold the benchmark of where the market “should be” to January 2021, you are setting yourself up for failure…
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Sorry, I meant to say January 2022
Only thing more gay than Bears are Commies
I lurk this sub and have been gaslit into thinking I don’t understand inflation but it’s actually all the regards on this sub who don’t understand it.
My goodness in heaven, thank you. I, stupidly, spent the weekend arguing with Reddit about how prices have not gone down on a damn thing and got nothing but downvoted on this very sub. Check my comment history for your lulz.
Of all the investing subs im in, wsb is consistently the most uneducated one while also posting with the most amount of confidence.
Psychologists should study this sub for Dunning-Kruger effect
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Granted inflation on food seems to be getting worse. Gas is going back up to. I expect 25 though and them putting it the exact same msg they did in December.
>FED officials talked about 25 basis point, they will go further hard as job market is good at present and they can control further, later they may not get this opportunity.
When the FED announces a rate hike of 50 bps on Wednesday i will gladly add some cheap shares.
I think waiting a day is usually a good rule of thumb. People apparently need time to catch up. Day 1 is denial.
Yes, you have to wait for it to hit the sweet spot.
powell will smack this market with a 50 bps and slaughter these retail investors. hedge fund managers + wall street know that this is still a bear market through and through...
Blah, blah, blah, buy and hold long. Wait 30 years, quit stressing about tomorrow.
This is wsb all we do is speculate with extremely over leveraged positions on fed policy
💯This is the only way to make money in the long run. If you guys are worried about more pain in the market, set up proper hedges. But don’t stop buying and holding good companies or indexes.
HODL is a good start in a bull market with the FED on your side. Rn? Not so much. Being bear near FED rates and a semi bull in the waiting period is a smarter decision tbh...
I've been buying and holding since 2006....Will continue buying and holding. Sold nothing over 2022 bear market, just bought more. Shocker, portfolio is green, very green.
Go back to r/investing then, nobody here cares about long-term shares in a retirement portfolio. This is a casino.
Down vote confirm this is the wey
Lol you buy during a bear market and sell when the market is extremely overvalued.
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I plan on selling some stocks, or if what I liked about the company changes.
Y’all sound like carbon copies of one another and that’s how they dupe y’all every time. FED futures predict 25 so it will be 25.
Maybe if it were S&P 4300. This is elevated but let’s not get carried away
Is the announcement at 2pm EST, or in the morning? Cause might as well buy puts on morning of for max roi, but if its announced in the morning pre market hours then would have to buy the day before options.
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2
They will do 25.
50 is expected until inflation is near 2%. Anything less would be an insult to the FEDS...
They should do 50, but they aren't going to do it I'm expecting .25 hikes for the next year and a reversal around election time. Consecutive .25 is needed just to maintain the current inflation rates.
50 is not expected. What is expected is public info, and there’s like a 99.5% chance of 25.
God dammit.
Regardless I stand by comments
>2%
Not happening for the next 5 years at least. Far more likely the USD/SWIFT gets abandoned as the basis currency since the rate hikes needed to get you to 2% would just devastate the rest of the world.
Americans basically deciding what their money is worth by jacking up rates to regarded amounts, while goverment keeps printing and borrowing.
The idea that retail/businesses borrowing cost is an alternate universe/reality from government borrowing and spending is funny. So policy makers want the government to have free money, and people to work for free for them... Just go back to slavery and get it over with.
EDIT: fat finger fix to add a T to be clear I am talking about the SWIFT system
!remind me 7 months
Theres no way USD gets abandoned unless the congress went full regard. There is a chance to see a rise for bartering or precious metal trade in worst hitting countries, but everyone else will keep trading in USD - most countries uses USD because it is the single most stable and transparent currency in existence, and thats without the extra stability enhancement from been the most internationally used currency
100% agree, we will not see 2% inflation for next 5 years
Have to agree. While the value of the dollar goes lower, people in worse economies being payed worse currency will suffer 2-3x more than Americans as the result of these rate hikes. Just look at Europe. They printed endlessly for so long they're currency lost 3x it's value in a year alone... More pain expected in 3rd world countries and economies with way less stability than the western world...
>nted endlessly for so long they're currency lost 3x it's value in a year alone... More pain expected in 3rd world countries and economies with way less stability than the western world...
Look at Pakistan, Srilanka, African countries....already suffering
Feds should do .50 and .25 in March then hold right at 5%…let 3 months pass and collect those data points. Easier to cut rates than to raise slowly for another year
That’s the thing they’ve been saying they are going to hold them there for a long time
He said “some time” not “long time”
Long time
Possible
They are doing 25bps, it's already confirmed. The only thing that might do is increase the pace of qt since rate hikes are basically done.
The expected terminal rate has been trending higher, and they listed 5%+ as their last target.
This is the big one. Jpow can be like “lolz we are now targeting 5.5-5.75 as their target band, get fuked u regards”
Uh oh here comes the real dump
I second the 🐸
Just wait until the war in Ukraine ends and energy falls through the floor along with everything else and the Fed is worrying about all the deflation …
I think the ECB is pretty much a red herring, nobody on this side of the pond really cares or is affected by the Europoors, but BoC just did a 0.25 hike, they tend to be pretty lock step with the US FED, or else the whole country gets fucked given the whole place has a GDP output of a single US state (Texas) and the US is the biggest trading partner. the two economies follow pretty closely and the numbers are showing that Canada is at a breaking point. The BoC has signalled no further hikes.
The US FED doesn't, and shouldn't care about devastation their rate causes to other countries. I don't know if they do 0.5 or 0.25, I couldn't care less. And I think that's really the issue, most people don't, so inflation doesn't care.
The rate hike is completely useless to talk about as long as the bank is meddling and picking who gets money and who doesn't. As long as they are hiking rates, while the geriatrics in congress are pumping money supply by raising the debt ceiling, nobody cares about the rate. The policymaker is not a rational actor, so as disruptive as they may be, planning for it, pretending it matters are a waste of time.
As long as free money is going to someone, capital assets will grow in value and inflation goes up.
The FED is not after inflation, they are after employment... Rate hikes will likely not stop until unemployment is back in the 9-10% range, and good luck since libtard policies have made a two tiered society, the unemployable and people making a bunch of money because they can add.
They are after wage growth, and wage growth has been trending down. Unemployment serves as a proxy for wage growth, but if wages cease growing there's no problem with full employment.
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I mean I wish he would, but like 1% chance probability.
That being said the market could still recede bc he'll just try to use words to slow down the rally.
I think by March FOMC inflation will be back.
25 percent.
It's basically already decided it's .25. But that's not what matters. What matters is if the FED sees its shadow when it comes out of its hole and declares whether or not Spring is coming.
please raise it 75 or 100 would be nice.
it's time for the banks to pay me on my saving accounts.
I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not, but that would be some wild shit.
Unless Jpow leaks a 50bp hike later today, it isn’t happening
Heavily regarded. Inflation is not coming down because that is not the objective... deflation is a big no-no. Let's look at the last six months... it's up 0.9%... times that by two to make 12 months... you've got 1.8% annualized.
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom
So Inflation came down?
Increasing at a decreasing rate
Zero chance we get less than 50 bps. Zero
Jpow will keep pooping till “the job is done” so whenever the market gets aroused like this, he will make it go limp right quick.
Puts print?
They are not going to do 25 or 50
JP going to do 69 just for the lolz
Don't get me so excited
It's pretty obvious it's going to be 25
But the question is what Powell says about the future
Hopefully he'll be able to get in a couple of more rate hikes before moderating to a peak rate for a while
That would get the party started!
Sounds like hopium but I'll gladly welcome 50 bps
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If they did .50bps it would make the fed look like they don't know what they're doing. Well, more obvious they are behind the curve. .25 is likely but JP and fed members will use hawkish tone to keep markets subdued.
If inflation WAS coming down, JPOW would not have said that he was going to do something unpopular.
Fed did not got name as it is, they start with "F" which also means Fuck Investors for mistakes FED have done or doing. Do anything to achieve there goal of 2%, considering fact 4.5 Trillion dollars dump by Biden and 3.5 Trillion dump by Trump in market. 2% inflation under any circumstances is not achievable.
Also, they are not doing enough to fix supply chain, bringing liquidity down to control and impact business is not a great idea.
I don’t know what ECB will do but FED will raise 25bp. It’s not even a discussion anymore at this point as the FED has been clear on this & inflation is coming down.
Now, will Jpow be a party pooper? I think so – just a month ago, he said he didn’t wanna see any rallies. We’ll stay around 5% for some time before there’ll be rate cuts.
Care to place a wager?
Inflation is 1.8% annualized last 6 months
Not coming down 😂 😂 🤡
I believe this time around they’re using the EGI (Egg Price Index), so I think we’ll actually see a massive spike.
EGI is off the charts. Time to buy hens
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I think most people are missing the point,.25 or .50 doesn't matter, liquidity is coming out either way. Higher inflation has the same effect as higher interest rates, both make the stock market way over valued. The longer the market fights the Fed the more severe the consequences. Someone please justify a 19 P/E for the S&P right now, give it your best shot.
25 point confirmed
When they hint 25 bps. It will be 25 bps. This is time when gay bears should inverse them selves
WE RIDE ON WEDNESDAY BEARS. NEW YEARLY LOWS CHARRRRRRRGE
CCB did 25 and announced an official no more. What’s your point?
Inflation trending down. Bears are gay. Stocks always go up. I can not count past 30.
This hurts my head.
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If this happens I'll shit in a bottle and sell it
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25 was leaked by one of the wsj journalist, he hasnt been wrong yet, so I’m assuming he got the call line to papi powell
50 then pause then 25 followed by another pause. The fed needs to stomp the shit out of inflation while it’s dying, not smack it’s little hiney
500 bps it is, thank me later guys
50 still less than 75
bullish
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They keep talking about the 25 basis point hike already baked into stock prices, hopefully J Powell says “fuck yo couch” and hits us with a 75 point hike 😂🤣🧗♀️
Nope. It'll be 25 if anything.
praying for 50
Someone has poots
Thoughts? Yeah, you’re a fucking idiot
They’ve already signalled. Fuck off
Fed said 0.25 Jpow said 0.25 They said 0.25 again and again
Wsb: 0.50 next week, guaranteed!
Mmmmmk
honestly it doesnt matter at this point, the rate will be higher than core pce and the billion dollars question is how high Fed wants for the positive real rate
25 bps is priced in and won’t be a market mover. However, forward guidance will be the real market mover. 50bps would be a huge surprise and it will be a very red for SPY if that’s the case.
Probably not, if I were JPow, I would not raise with inflation, month over month, is almost back to normal. I would hold and see if inflation goes down further. Having said that, I am neck deep in puts so I am wishing for a big hike.
JPow will bitch out and do 25bps, if he had any balls he’d go 50
0.01 chance of a .50 hike. You belong here.
I wish they would do a 50 but it'll probably just be 25.
whats today
25 basis points, they will do what Canada did, because they told Canada what to do
I only hope the fed does the right thing and hikes 50 basis points. Everything about this economy is on fire...anyone thats laid off get scooped up by other business. Cost of raw goods may have decreased but that hasn't been pushed down to retail.
We also need to shut the traps of the analysts that keep wanting a cut. This reason alone I want 50 basis point hike so bad.
50bps is so Volcker!
People want to believe 25 but the market doesn’t care what people believe. JPOW will do what he always does, a surprise.
Bears be bears, bulls be bulls. They all think their little cute charts and crayons predict future or some of magic ball knows it all.
He literally never surprises, 25bps is priced in because the fed already confirmed it
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StritPlunGrateNud t1_j6imduq wrote
List of all the times the Fed hiked more than expected in the past 22 years: