Game Theory: The war will end soon, oil will plummet, Biden will get re-elected

Submitted by mlamping t3_10pjbhi in wallstreetbets

r/wallstreetbets/comments/sshs8f/game_theory_putin_will_invade_ukraine_what_stocks

From my previous prediction (I got shit on predicting Russia will invade and to by boil), I believe everything runs on game theory.

Edit: I didn’t go into the game theory, I briefly mentioned it. Biden and allies vs putin. They have interdependent decisions to make. But ah well, forgot this is wsb and everyone is a regard, ie I should have spelled it out. But google game theory and understand the full context of what is happening

So from recent events, I’m back to posting about game theory and predict what will happen.

  1. The war is nearly over
  2. It’ll cause oil to dump hard
  3. World will enter deflation since we have supply surpluses and abundant energy and oil.
  4. Fed will pivot
  5. QE will begin
  6. Ukraine will be the next money pit
  7. Biden will be re-elected

Main is number 1. Putin only has 2 options now, nuke or negotiate. US and nato allies know this, so they’ll push until they know they can’t anymore anymore and pivot to negotiations. Biden will “broker” the negotiation. It’ll cause Russia to start selling oil again. Saudi’s will be scared that US and Russia are on talking terms again and begin to let the oil flow. (Not sure if Biden will hold a grudge against Saudi Arabia, they may).

Oil and gas will drop insanely. That coupled with surplus supply and unemployment happening, fed will have to pivot.

Depending on how mad unemployment actually is, fed may have to cut interest rates and may have pause QT.

I expect stock market to fly, but if for some reason it doesn’t, QE will happen.

Biden will use ending the war and reversing inflation. They’ll also blame inflation of trump.

Biden will get re-elected.

Mainly, the conflict only has 2 ways to go now, Putin pushes the button or Putin stops the war. Since this is a 0 sum game, the war will end.

Caveat, if putin is actually sick and doesn’t give a f about anything, buy a bunker! 🤣

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VisualMod t1_j6kqxg6 wrote

>It's pretty clear that you don't know anything about game theory.

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LordLurker420 t1_j6kux19 wrote

Or war.. or what Russia (Putin) is willing to sacrifice and maintain. They have enough oil and meat for the grinder to last a few years

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togetherwem0m0 t1_j6l5iyk wrote

Regrettably this is true. The only thing that stops the war is russian internal bullshit. I'd hope for a peoples democratic revolution but based on what I know about Russians don't hold your breath. They are serfs and enjoy being serfs

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more_magic_mike t1_j6nwi1u wrote

More like they are smart enough to know that overthrowing a government doesn't mean better times.

Same with the chinese people.

The people that think tearing down a government leads to good times are the people so spoiled they should never consider tearing down their government.

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togetherwem0m0 t1_j6okom8 wrote

George Washington and the founding fathers would like a word

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more_magic_mike t1_j6olz2o wrote

America was very lucky, it became the greatest country in modern history, but it could have easily turned out like the French Revolution(s).

It also had the second amendment added which was a pretty important piece here.

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togetherwem0m0 t1_j6p0dc8 wrote

Revolutions are never clean. But I don't like what you're inferring that the French revolution led to overall bad outcomes and would be better having never happened, and people should just know their station and go along to get along. I believe your thesis is incorrect.

The American revolution was a messy affair as well, the only thing that made it less so was the Atlantic Ocean and the natural inhibition of supply lines from the European powers. But it was not clean and tidy. It was bloody af

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EotEaH t1_j6kwyw6 wrote

I masturbated to War Games as a kid I think that counts

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FlameScytheX t1_j6ldsyw wrote

I'll take shit that won't happen for $500, Alex

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secrtive13 t1_j6ksxmi wrote

War is almost over...what you have the War over to watch the game yesterday or something? Do you know how War works? Syria is still in a war. War don't give a fuck when you think it should end. War'll end when it damn well pleases. War is hell.

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absboodoo t1_j6m0dxj wrote

My personal prediction is that Putin will try a final push after Ukraine’s support by NATO begin to run low. When that failed, only then we will be back to the talk or nuke situation.

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kuprenx t1_j6m22ro wrote

all west intel agencies said Putin gonna do another big push in month. apparently all the tank donations expedite. Before tank promises they say about march but now thy saying in weeks. So they gonna try to burn they 200k mobilized men to get as much gains as possible then on defensive from all the armour they got. then about april may gonna see poush from urkanians. the outcomes of these two battles will decide how war will ends.

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TelMeEverything t1_j6nuba0 wrote

Why would support to Ukraine ever run out? NATO is absolutely dunking Russia in this war. It's honestly like the best possible outcome for the US and allies - we send them some equipment that we can easily afford and we don't lose any soldiers whereas Russia loses a ton of soldiers and equipment. If I was biden or European leaders I would want this thing to drag out for as long as possible.

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nateccs t1_j6l73wo wrote

russia spent 10 years in afghanastan before calling it quits. why would ukraine turn out any differently?

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crispybluebills t1_j6ll9oq wrote

Your “game theory” assumes its nuke or negotiate? There’s a distinct possibility of a third outcome where this drags on for a very long time. Timing is sort of important with these things in case you haven’t learned that the hard way.

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TelMeEverything t1_j6nt4fq wrote

Came here to point this out. Something tells me Putin wouldn't mind sacrificing a couple million Russians in a war of attrition. If nothing else it probably makes him look more badass in front of his Russian supporters. The longer the war drags on the more harm is done to Ukraine state the longer it takes you can't Ukraine to recover afterwards the less useful Ukraine would be as a NATO Ally. Not saying this is definitely what happens but I don't see the wisdom in ruling this out.

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DiriboNuclearAcid t1_j6nyj1d wrote

On the flip side the longer the war takes the more Ukraine will be useless to Russia. It'd be even worse cuz the rebuilding and continued insurrection activity will be a huge liability. The way I see it, the longer this war goes on Russia becomes less likely to take Kiev and/or win the war. So ya I don't think nuking is even an option for Russia, it's either win conventionally or pull out completely. Ukraine will not accept giving an inch of ground to Russia.

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Alsupy t1_j6ktchv wrote

Tell me that you don't know anything about game theory without saying that you know nothing about game theory.

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Dan_inKuwait t1_j6ksddo wrote

Ok... How does this affect your bets?

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animalover69 t1_j6krt5x wrote

A Biden re-election is pushing it. I think a DeSantis ticket would win. For perspective, nearly half of voters voted for Trump.

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Dandan0005 t1_j6l1ght wrote

Trump would burn it all down before taking a back seat to desantis.

He’ll split the party, and convince his voters to stay home Vs support desantis.

Trump won the first time cause he turned out uninvolved voters while also maintaining the “hold my nose and vote for him” republicans.

The latter group would support desantis at this point, but the former won’t if the godking tells them not to.

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AR475891 t1_j6l2j4i wrote

GOP has an old voter problem. They have basically put all their effort into making everyone under 45 hate them and roughly 55% of their national popular vote in 2020 was over 65. Sure some younger folks may have voted GOP in 2020 and will continue to do so but how many people do you think that voted for Biden in general during 2020 are likely to flip? Particularly young people?

Besides, roughly 55% of people who voted for trump last time were over 65 and his strongest voter demographic was silent gen members every year. In fact the only majority GOP voting group by age is over 65. Roughly 3 million people die a year naturally and that’s probably 98% old folks. Using the same participation rate of 70% for this demographic during the 2020 election They are looking to lose between 4.5-5 million voters due to deaths alone. These voters are being replaced by gen zers who vote 65 -35 Dem.

Not saying it’s impossible, but as long as the economy isnt in a deep recession DURING the election a GOP win is not likely.

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YourFaceCausesMePain t1_j6llpp7 wrote

You mean all these tech companies laying off thousands of workers right now aren’t gonna sway some votes?

The economy sucks right now. And to fix it we have to have high unemployment. With so many layoffs, it’s not gonna be a bright election for the dems.

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AR475891 t1_j6lpxmv wrote

I think in the past that may have been true, but things are so polarized now I would think it would have to be really really bad. The GOP fell flat on its face in 2022 in all of the states they would need to win the electoral college in 2024 in one of the worst political environments in history. Literally didn’t win a state wide race except the Nevada Gov election and that guy is not MAGA like Trump or Desantis.

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YourFaceCausesMePain t1_j6ls55a wrote

The gop had terrible candidates. Look at Georgia. Kemp blew Abrams out of the water. Yet Walker was going nowhere. I think the GOP got too cocky and borked it up. Or, deliberately.

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AR475891 t1_j6ltdv1 wrote

I mean Trump isn’t a terrible general election candidate? What is desantis offering people different than Trump? The GOP has a major issue in that their base has been radicalized to the point that their candidates must pass a purity test to get the nomination on things that make them unelectable.

  1. Abortion - who can win a presidential nomination for the gop without pushing for a national ban? You’ll probably even get a desperate Beto-Esque person pushing for a contraception ban.

  2. 2020 Fraud - who can win the nomination without saying the 2020 election was stolen?

  3. Any nominee but Trump - do people really think Trump will quietly fade away if he doesn’t get the nomination? He will burn down the GOP or steal away a third of their voters at a minimum in a 3rd party run if he doesn’t get it.

Again, it’s not impossible but the GOP has put themselves in a tough corner. It’s not the 1990s anymore where both parties are basically the same and the majority of people will hold their nose again for Biden over pretty much any MAGA person.

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YourFaceCausesMePain t1_j6lv4r8 wrote

Trump won’t win a GOP election. Desantis would. He’s very conservative but not alt right. He’s what the GOP needs.

Abortion was ran out of the Supreme Court to stir shit up. Not enough people overly care about it. But it will make loud voices and that what the dems always need to win elections.

Fraud? Who care. Really. Who cares. The only way to secure an election is to win by a mile or win where it’s important.

Trump did one thing, he proved the dems have a weakness. However, I think it’s all just a game and someone else is pulling the strings. Makes us feel important and empowered.

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JMLobo83 t1_j6lh27z wrote

Don't forget most folks who died of Covid were over 65 conservatives, GOP or right-leaning independents. The GOP's real problem is suburban educated and working class women hate them.

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30dollarprofit t1_j6ldh2s wrote

Not gonna lie, I definitely voted for Biden for that stimmy check to throw on FD’s. Definitely voting DeSantis if he runs/wins the primary.

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LdotFdot t1_j6kufei wrote

DeSantis isn't as charismatic as Trump and isn't broadly popular outside of Florida. A Trump & DeSantis (joint) run may work, but I can't see Trump ever agreeing to that.

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FadedReaper561 t1_j6l0ofa wrote

DeSantis really does have a large following outside of Florida, I just met some people from Philly that moved here simply because of DeSantis’ policies on covid

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80milesbad t1_j6ljkid wrote

Trump gonna have Marjorie Taylor something or other

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Critical-Series t1_j6lk5td wrote

That’s a guaranteed L if he picks her. Even if Biden is a corpse he’d win.

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LdotFdot t1_j6lxkjo wrote

so like the last election? ;-P

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Critical-Series t1_j6mqdnf wrote

Precisely. His election last time illustrates how repulsive Trump is to normal people.

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LetterheadSmall9975 t1_j6kshsw wrote

And more than half voted for Biden. Your logic is flawed.

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ultimate_placeholder t1_j6kucme wrote

More than half voted for Hillary, their logic isn't flawed, the system is.

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kickasstimus t1_j6n75jj wrote

DeSantis has all the charm of a dry turd on a bad road.

I doubt he’ll be the nominee.

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OB1KENOB t1_j6l340a wrote

What if a new virus emerges from Russia next month? And a new pandemic happens. What then?

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Clueless_stray_cat t1_j6lkogq wrote

The walls of reality will come crashing down. One minute, you'll be the savior of the rebel cause, and the next thing you know... you'll be Cohaagan's Bosom Buddy. You'll also have fantasies about alien civilizations... as you requested, but in the end back on Earth, you will be be lobotomized!

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Grimbruiser t1_j6lm24q wrote

Isn't an asteroid supposed to hit next year anyway?

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GGprime t1_j6lrz49 wrote

And it will be twice as big as the one who hit us last year.

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TheBlackWindXIV t1_j6kr6xy wrote

I’m a complete moron when it comes to the economy. Does the Fed pivoting imply reduction in interest rates or something else? And what is QE?

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Powellwx t1_j6le607 wrote

QE is short for queef, the sound your wife makes after her boyfriend leaves after he sells you calls.

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[deleted] t1_j6kxy7o wrote

It means switching back to printing money and giving out loans for free

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y90210 t1_j6l2sy4 wrote

Fed won't do anything but raise rates in 2023, they already said that. And they don't want to stop and reverse too early because it would make things worse. All that's happening right now is a slowing of the rate of inflation but costs are still elevated. Powell also said his goal is to slow inflation in large part by preventing wage inflation (people being paid more). Which also means he seeks to increase unemployment as a way to reach their goal. Unemployment is still too low, so hikes will continue.

End of the war doesn't fix the issues we face. And usually the bottom of the market occurs AFTER the fed has pivoted.

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Mrgoldenwhale t1_j6mx57f wrote

Yes. Pivoting, like a pivot means the fed stops increasing interest rates and decrease. QE is quantitative easing and from what I read is the govt lending money to themselves to give to the market, in effect printing more money while trying to avoid inflation.

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Unknownirish t1_j6kt4dd wrote

OP, just my opinion, but natural gas is already at record low.

https://preview.redd.it/otl1nolujbfa1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f73f41833f526b81e5362820d4b38ccce92640dc

Following per pandemic levels. I do expect this is a larger base on threads of going fully electric. Cue stove bans that has been popping up and right leaning republicans blaming Biden by "coming for your stove."

This could also be reenforced the countless times we have seen Biden boasting over EVs

Oh, yeah, but perhaps Putin cancer rumors are true. Or maybe he just a dictator.

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mlamping OP t1_j6ktcy3 wrote

Yep, because winter wasn’t cold. But it’ll drop even more.

Maybe negative because you have to pay to keep the oversupply on ships

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JMLobo83 t1_j6lgagb wrote

Winter ain't over yet, natural gas prices spike in cold weather like we're having at the moment.

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Tronbronson t1_j6mnnr3 wrote

Have you seen the put OI on NG? I'm long but I'm also Fuk

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Unknownirish t1_j6kub6m wrote

Well I'm not European, I'm American.

I do have sympathy for Europeans and the winter they face. But I am referring to the natural gas chart I mentioned as a way as a starting point to step way from fossil fuels, and I believe Biden is thinking this way.

Though it is a dangerous game, and generally Americans view Putin as a dictator.

Putin isn't stupid though, and I have been watching a lot of history of Putin, and my take is he probably feels he is the last true Russian patriot. As controverial that may be to say.

Edit words and grammar

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JMLobo83 t1_j6lgl46 wrote

Putin is just trying to stay in power, this is straight out of the dictators playback. When your people are getting restless, blame external "enemies" and launch an invasion.

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Unknownirish t1_j6lgwq8 wrote

Just going to ignore this huh

Could be propaganda though? Why is "second wave" in quotation marks?

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JMLobo83 t1_j6lifin wrote

The "first wave" left when he first instituted the draft, the second wave left when it became apparent that Russia was losing and the war could drag on for years and economic stagnation was assured.

There's no question Russia is suffering a talent and wealth drain, but that's still estimated to be around 1,000,000 or so out of a total population of around 145,000,000, so less than 1% estimated have fled due to the war. Probably more than that will die or be injured in the war before it's over.

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S_Writer t1_j6le8km wrote

You almost had me until "Biden will be re-elected"

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Heavy_Race_3253 t1_j6m24l8 wrote

Biden president again 😂

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Nonya5 t1_j6n5elp wrote

Depends. If the options are a boring milktoast guy I generally disagree with or a raging narcissistic lunatic, I'll go with milktoast.

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pronserver t1_j6lo2g6 wrote

True regard of the highest order.

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CoolFirefighter930 t1_j6lhmey wrote

Stock will goto shit and will be the next great depression.

ther I fixed it for you

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04364 t1_j6ln7yo wrote

Biden won’t make it through his first term let alone be re-elected

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BruhLord420691337 t1_j6m9c1o wrote

Very interesting, thank you for the post.

My thought is that if oil price plummets, the oil cartel will cut production again. I mean last time they did it was in the middle of the war when it was supposed to be more scarce due to cut of russian supply.

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Falcofury t1_j6o1q4s wrote

This whole post is undermined by your delusional confidence that Biden even has a chance. His job is to read from a teleprompter. The last sentence is the only thing you said that sounds like a reasonable thought. All of us are now dumber after reading this post, thanks.

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lalalaamerica t1_j6kt24e wrote

he was right about russia. go back and read his posts a year ago

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thewrecker8 t1_j6l8gy6 wrote

Remember when Russia first invaded Ukraine and Biden said that if he starts sending tanks and offensive equipment to Ukraine to make no mistake, you're talking about World War 3. Then a year later he announces he sending tanks to Ukraine. Good times.

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Serious-Pepper2380 t1_j6licbp wrote

I believe Ukraine will never get US tanks because Ukraine won't survive another year. Plus they don't have the training or the support/supply infrastructure needed to maintain those tanks

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thewrecker8 t1_j6lnqa8 wrote

Correct. And then we'll need to send in operators for them. Then guess what happens?

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RetardedStockTrader t1_j6m3y5s wrote

They'll also blame Trump for inflation

Probably the only given on this post

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cjc323 t1_j6mmu3a wrote

biden may get re elected but he won't make it another 4

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Icy-Subject-6118 t1_j6myx72 wrote

Amazing. Every single thing you’ve said is wrong.

2

bgd73 t1_j6nml4e wrote

game theory.

Biden gets a nursing home, DeSantis takes over as a normal republican...Trump fades away, pretending to be a battler..

no nukes.

kim jong un accidentlly takes over moscow. It's name becomes Unscow. Russina princess becomes korean princess.

electric vehicle fake value fad dies off rapidly, the bread winners are electric however...dropping cost all around. oil and utility.

QE not necessry, they have tech and internet monitoring in ways never seen before. they even change daily markets with a few clicks and swipes.

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HenryGoodbar t1_j6nx8i2 wrote

Russia ain’t gonna quit. Biden ain’t gettin re-elected.

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ConBroMitch t1_j6o3c60 wrote

Imagine thinking that it’s Biden and allies VS Putin.

Vlad is simply controlled opposition and Ukraine is the money & weapons laundress. Take a step back and it all makes sense.

Oh I almost forgot…

If you’re so fucking confident #POSITIONS OR BAN

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mlamping OP t1_j6o698c wrote

Funny how you think everything is some complex conspiracy.

You ppl are oblivious

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ConBroMitch t1_j6o7c80 wrote

It’s not complex, it’s real fucking simple actually. Bend over and let’s see your positions then.

Again, post positions or fucking ban. I’m concerned that I have to ask twice.

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ConBroMitch t1_j6o8l14 wrote

Remindme! 2 years

Call this fucking chode a moron.

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^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive >TL;DR: War is nearly over. Oil will drop, world will enter deflation, Fed will have to pivot, QE may happen, Ukraine will be the next money pit, Biden will be re-elected

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jr1tn t1_j6ksxkl wrote

This is "game theory" -- how?

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mlamping OP t1_j6ktvhq wrote

I didn’t go into the game theory, I briefly mentioned it. Biden and allies vs putin. They have interdependent decisions to make. But ah well, forgot this is wsb and everyone is a regard, ie I should have spelled it out

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menos365 t1_j6kz2xb wrote

I read your post! Excellent read, my thoughts exactly. I wasn't going to go into it here, but I dabble in quantum mechanics and the results are identical. Putin has no other choice but to choose.

Biden is old and therefore might die sooner than putin or he might not but if that happened in the next month it changes everything. According to my calculations it's 50/50 chance of occurring.

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rarius18 t1_j6ktnwp wrote

Lol, that was actually funny :) good laugh. Alas, “Putin sick” has been pushed since Crimea and the bastards livelier than ever, it is quite literally another “ghost of Kiev” bs, along with “Ukraine winning”. I mean, Slava Ukraini, but they’re fucking losing big time and 14 leopards ain’t gonna do shit. Nah, it’s either WW3 or …I don’t know, probably WW3

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funwillfunwill t1_j6kum8s wrote

You responded to this dude's shit take with an even shittier take idk how that's possible

0

rarius18 t1_j6kus7s wrote

What’s my shitty take? That Ukraine is winning or we’re gonna end up in WW3 or that “putin sick” is a tale that has been pushed since 2014?

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RedditsFullofShit t1_j6lcgwz wrote

Define winning?

Would you say US won in Iraq and Afghanistan? Because that is what Russia is facing. They will not take and hold Ukraine other than the areas in which they maintain armed forces. It’s too big for them to hold it all. They can barely hold a tiny corner.

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rarius18 t1_j6ld5hq wrote

Good point, I don’t know - all I keep hearing on the propaganda is we’re winning and that we’re about push the orcs out? But yeah, I think you made a valid point - probably gonna be like what we had in Iraq or Afghanistan. Although, technically, I think we won in Iraq because we captured and executed Sadam Hussein and established a puppet government that we control over there. That’s winning, right? Maybe that’s what the Russians are aiming for as well? With Afghanistan, yeah totally got cucked.

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RedditsFullofShit t1_j6lh1jb wrote

Hard to say what Russia’s true aim was at the start. Maybe just a puppet regime. Maybe they still eventually succeed in assassinating Zelensky. Though if that was their only aim, surely they could have done that without staging a full invasion. But the same could be said for us with Iraq. We didn’t have to go there just to get saddam. We could have sent a drone and done it immediately. It’s always about the economics. Ukraine has a lot of food and oil. Iraq had a lot of oil. Afghanistan a lot of opium. And of course the wealth gained from those assets makes you even stronger.

I guess I would say that Russia holding any land at all would be a “win”. But the question is how long will they hold areas they‘ve taken. And if in the long run they leave like we did, then it’s not a win, no matter how much they hold today.

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JMLobo83 t1_j6ljuw6 wrote

No foreign power has ever successfully occupied Afghanistan afaik. The Chinese will be the next to try due to insane mineral wealth but it's going to be hard to extract and process the ore.

The West did topple Saddam fairly easily but it's important to remember that "Iraq" as we know it is an historical fiction invented by the British and composed of various different peoples with little in common. The Shiites identify with Iran, the Sunnis with the Sauds, then you've got various other peoples. Iran probably benefitted the most of anyone from Saddam's removal because he loved killing Iranians. The Kurds benefitted. Any benefit to Western states was clearly outweighed by the extraordinary cost involved.

1

rarius18 t1_j6lket6 wrote

Oh you know what, the Russians are saying the same thing about Ukraine ! That Ukraine is not a country and Ukrainian is not a nation! Lol, I just found it funny.

2

JMLobo83 t1_j6lkpyv wrote

That's a fantasy perpetrated by a delusional psycho with brain cancer. Ukraine is the origin of the Rus peoples, Russia is the fiction.

1

rarius18 t1_j6lkv8c wrote

But Iraq isn’t?

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JMLobo83 t1_j6ll1tr wrote

In my comment I stated that "Iraq" was a fictional country created by the British.

1

CajunAggie t1_j6kvqkq wrote

There will be a short dip in O&G price, but Saudi and Russia are oil dependent economies and will curtail to boost returns. Russia will drag its feet because they have bills to pay which may drag out the dip.

1

daveed4445 t1_j6lhzoz wrote

War is almost over might be a little relative but on the closer to being over than begun maybe. Wars don’t last forever, they do end eventually. Lots of uncertainty but when the war does end I think you are right on everything else

1

GGprime t1_j6lrwfd wrote

War almost over has been said for almost a year now.

1

Jackie296 t1_j6lxz1i wrote

Can you explain game theory in Minecraft terms?

1

Melodic_Fee5400 t1_j6lzyx6 wrote

Game Theory: Putin will nuke the shit out of Germany for deploying weapons to Ukraine, oil will be 1000 dollars a barrel, Trump will get elected. Markets go back to 1983 levels. Thoughts? img

1

SuperLeverage t1_j6mglp1 wrote

Even if the war ends, I doubt Europe and the rest of the world will gleefully sign back onto being energy dependent on Russia again. That boat has sailed.

1

AcrobaticKitten t1_j6mlqsj wrote

The Russian mobilization is just kicking in and Russia increases their effort. No peace talks until Zelensky is in power.

Iran might be the next hotspot as they are slowly getting close to nuclear bombs so Israel and USA will try to stop them. Starting a civil war didnt seem to work, next one might be a surprise attack.

1

benjaminactual t1_j6mstob wrote

The recession is going to be so bad they have already planned a manufactured war with China in 2 years to pull us out of it...

1

LOLatVirgins t1_j6n5qq7 wrote

Biden or Mango better not be president next election. America pleeeease, do the right thing!

1

Humble_Increase7503 t1_j6nbcob wrote

“Putin only has 2 options now, nuke or negotiate”

I mean… Based upon what?

This war can and probably will drag on for quite awhile.

I could just as easily say:

Oil is going to $150. Here’s why, game theory says Putin cannot lose because he will be murdered by his own intelligence agencies, ergo, the war cannot end and were fucked.

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logicalandwitty t1_j6nfhus wrote

I stopped reading as soon as you wrote nuke or negotiate.

After their mobilization they’re already making gains into Ukraines territory and they’re sending in the weapons that they were reserving for a larger war as well

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bootyggg t1_j6nnnkl wrote

QE begins and oil dumps img

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Jacobo5555 t1_j6ntd5x wrote

  1. Inflation gets worse but that’s trumps fault 🙄 enjoy the good times?
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Sensitive_Pickle247 t1_j6nxhjy wrote

You really don't know that the war in Ukraine will end soon. It could drag on for years. Keep in mind Syria started in 2011 and theres still fighting

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Fox_Technicals t1_j6nymko wrote

Can never get behind game theory mechanics in the market because the real world doesn’t repeat with the exact same conditions as it does in poker, chess etc

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NavyJon t1_j6oj64n wrote

Biden re-elected is terrible. He can't function now, let alone next year.

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summertime_taco t1_j6ok8j2 wrote

Putin is more than happy to burn tens of millions of Russians before giving up. We're only at about 100,000.

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Spidaaman t1_j6on9lv wrote

Nothing beats this sub for some idiot confidently and condescendingly explaining a “thesis” that amounts to complete bullshit.

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BumbleB9 t1_j6oulas wrote

Very much plz not number 7

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Green_Manalishi_420 t1_j6ktxxo wrote

I find your analysis detached from reality. Putin would rather nuke than negotiate. That’s the big wake-up call this year.

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Serious-Pepper2380 t1_j6lhwl1 wrote

Why would Putin nuke? This is the most regarded assumption I hear from people.

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Green_Manalishi_420 t1_j6li6jo wrote

Yeah what do I know, I’m only a half-Russian institutional investment guy. To Putin, this war is an existential final struggle between Russia and the West. This isn’t Georgian adventurism. Putin will not lose. He will win, or he will spark a nuclear conflict.

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Serious-Pepper2380 t1_j6liozg wrote

Yeah, because Russia has a track record of dropping nuclear bombs on countries. Putin alone cannot launch a nuclear war head, you as a "half Russian" should know

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reety82 t1_j6kv350 wrote

You could not be more wrong about oil dumping. Years of underinvestment will underpin oil for years to come.

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mlamping OP t1_j6kv7ew wrote

I’m not saying it will be indefinite. Just stating that after the war is done, Russia will dump oil to get cash.

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Serious-Pepper2380 t1_j6lmnl9 wrote

Get cash? Green backs? Putin in power would be a defat for the US. Why would Putin go back to dollar and empower the US again when they managed to successfully defy historic unsuccessful economic attacks. US is losing in case you're unaware of world politics, quite concerning for those of us that live in the states but America beginning to put back from US influence: for example, Peru in the brink of civil war caused by CIA and it's interests in its Lithium mines. Bolivia speaking out about US involvement. El Salvador claiming to " want to become like UN leading nations, meaning are independent and not anyone's back yard", Colombia ending it's " war against drugs" which they say only benefits US. Brazil, Mexico ( the two economic giant s of Latin America) also are expressing gripes... I can keep going. Bottom line is you give Biden too much credit, when in reality he'll be lucky to make out this term not in a wheelchair: dude has trouble walking and in the brink of dimensia

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Lucky_Bag_5301 t1_j6kvt14 wrote

nice, share loss porn in 3 months. #teampowell PUTS ON EVERYTHING

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mlamping OP t1_j6kvznu wrote

Will do, look at before with my BOIL call. Gain porn to the nuts

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Snoo_96430 t1_j6l3prk wrote

I mean uncle Joe's corpse is definitely being reelected but the war is going on for a bit.

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Jada171 t1_j6lxbss wrote

Joe Biden is a corrupt pedophile

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Turbiedurb t1_j6mrmrv wrote

>Biden will get re-elected

0% probability. The dude is old as dirt.

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[deleted] t1_j6kva8a wrote

[deleted]

−3

mlamping OP t1_j6kvigk wrote

Did you just come onto Reddit to say that!?!?

What is this, Wikipedia or New York Times?

Wow you’re a regard

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