Submitted by mlamping t3_10pjbhi in wallstreetbets
RedditsFullofShit t1_j6lcgwz wrote
Reply to comment by rarius18 in Game Theory: The war will end soon, oil will plummet, Biden will get re-elected by mlamping
Define winning?
Would you say US won in Iraq and Afghanistan? Because that is what Russia is facing. They will not take and hold Ukraine other than the areas in which they maintain armed forces. It’s too big for them to hold it all. They can barely hold a tiny corner.
rarius18 t1_j6ld5hq wrote
Good point, I don’t know - all I keep hearing on the propaganda is we’re winning and that we’re about push the orcs out? But yeah, I think you made a valid point - probably gonna be like what we had in Iraq or Afghanistan. Although, technically, I think we won in Iraq because we captured and executed Sadam Hussein and established a puppet government that we control over there. That’s winning, right? Maybe that’s what the Russians are aiming for as well? With Afghanistan, yeah totally got cucked.
RedditsFullofShit t1_j6lh1jb wrote
Hard to say what Russia’s true aim was at the start. Maybe just a puppet regime. Maybe they still eventually succeed in assassinating Zelensky. Though if that was their only aim, surely they could have done that without staging a full invasion. But the same could be said for us with Iraq. We didn’t have to go there just to get saddam. We could have sent a drone and done it immediately. It’s always about the economics. Ukraine has a lot of food and oil. Iraq had a lot of oil. Afghanistan a lot of opium. And of course the wealth gained from those assets makes you even stronger.
I guess I would say that Russia holding any land at all would be a “win”. But the question is how long will they hold areas they‘ve taken. And if in the long run they leave like we did, then it’s not a win, no matter how much they hold today.
JMLobo83 t1_j6ljuw6 wrote
No foreign power has ever successfully occupied Afghanistan afaik. The Chinese will be the next to try due to insane mineral wealth but it's going to be hard to extract and process the ore.
The West did topple Saddam fairly easily but it's important to remember that "Iraq" as we know it is an historical fiction invented by the British and composed of various different peoples with little in common. The Shiites identify with Iran, the Sunnis with the Sauds, then you've got various other peoples. Iran probably benefitted the most of anyone from Saddam's removal because he loved killing Iranians. The Kurds benefitted. Any benefit to Western states was clearly outweighed by the extraordinary cost involved.
rarius18 t1_j6lket6 wrote
Oh you know what, the Russians are saying the same thing about Ukraine ! That Ukraine is not a country and Ukrainian is not a nation! Lol, I just found it funny.
JMLobo83 t1_j6lkpyv wrote
That's a fantasy perpetrated by a delusional psycho with brain cancer. Ukraine is the origin of the Rus peoples, Russia is the fiction.
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