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VisualMod t1_j25cuvx wrote

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VisualMod t1_j25cvm7 wrote

>The bill auctions are simply the government selling bonds to raise money, and they can have an impact on price movement if there is high demand for the bonds (pushing prices up) or low demand (pushing prices down). The JOLTS job quits data could be important as it will give insight into whether people are confident in their jobs or not, and if job losses start to increase again then that could put pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

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0x11C3P t1_j25e86c wrote

PMI is going to be bad. Construction is going to be negative. Bill auctions will have no impact on equity markets.

Mortgage rates don't matter much as long as you're keeping a tally yourself so you can try and understand Fed movements. It's more important to know MoM home sales and price. The Fed minutes you spoke of are minutes from the last meeting. The next FOMC rate decision will be the JAN/FEB meeting. With their latest signaling, it's probably going to be 25 bps until we hit 5/5.25%. Housing/services is sticky as fuck so it's going to take some time.

JOLTS data will be lower which will prop up markets because it's what the Fed is looking at and lower numbers means/hopes Fed can start their easing.

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All this means is that it's going to be choppy. That said, I've been saying that with the latest NKE/FDX earnings showed we're not quite at earnings compression as I had hoped. I see some upside here until we break into the 390/400 range.

Thinking once we hit somewhere in that range we'll start to see some prolonged downtrend and earnings revisions starting late January/early February as earnings start to come out in earnest.

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0x11C3P t1_j25fonn wrote

Replying to whoisthelogos (#1,156,070)

The real uncertainty in my eyes is China and COVID. How many people will die? Will it kill their labor force like it did in the US? Are they replaceable or will they have to suffer through some employment participation rate issues? Will they spread it outside their borders?

Because China is such a black box when it comes to data, it's hard to tell. Also don't know how many times they'll end up closing down factories because a dozen or so people infected the entire factory. Also don't know when they'll finally accept other vaccines like from PFE that are actually efficient compared to Sinovac.

In the end, all the China news will just add volatility that's hard to predict. General thesis remains the same.

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