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albertez t1_j237t8p wrote

Reply to comment by 33446shaba in Thoughts on Buying Puts for Home Construction companies by Realistic_Weight_703

They’ve all actually been very prudent about deleveraging in anticipation of a coming storm.

They have been making so much money. It’s going to be a bad 2023, but I don’t know how low you really expect them to go. They all have clean balance sheets and trade at discount valuations because everyone is already expecting homebuilding to be a mess next year.

It would have to be really catastrophic for puts to print wildly.

Just feels like there is way too much garbage out there to bet against to really need to dig for stories like this, where wildly profitable companies with clean balance sheets and discount valuations are going to have a widely anticipated bad year because of macro stuff. Just bet against the garbage instead.

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MyRedditiJustMade t1_j268sgu wrote

What’s the garbage

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albertez t1_j26c89p wrote

Unprofitable tech and fintech, unprofitable retail, SaaS companies trading at 30x revenue, SPACs, meme stocks, etc. There is a huge amount of loss making trash in the market that is begging to be shorted.

Homebuilders face a tough 2023, but they are wildly profitable and cheaply valued today and have balance sheets that should stand up well to a big downturn in demand, with margins that are so good that they’ll likely still be profitable even if revenue craters.

Nobody knows anything, but feels like looking for blowups in this sector is unnecessary when there is so much low hanging fruit.

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MyRedditiJustMade t1_j26dsz0 wrote

Appreciate it . Never shorted before so I’ve been doing a lot of research tryna figure out which companies have the most risk . What do you think about BDCs and private equity firms such as Blackstone , KKR and Ares ?

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